DXY holds at 99.70 with mixed USD performance – OCBC

Hopes of shutdown nearing an end continued to keep sentiments supported. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the senate and there were 8 Democrat senators who swung to support Republicans. The final vote in the senate has just been passed, and later a vote in the House this week before Trump signs. Dollar Index (DXY) was last at 99.70 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Data delays set to persist

“Risk proxyFX including AUD, MYR are outperforming other lower yielders like JPY, EUR and SGD, while the USD traded mixed. Mild bullish momentum on daily chart faded but decline in RSI slowed. 2-way trades likely to persist. Resistance at 100.40/60 levels (200 DMA, 76.4% fibo), 101.20 levels. Support at 99.10 levels (50% fibo retracement of May high to Sep low), and 98.20/40 levels (50, 100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo).”

“More importantly, when will data releases resume normal flow after US government ends? CPI, PPI and retail sales data are supposed to be released on Thursday, Friday later this week but is likely to be delayed until further notice. Past data will be gradually released after shutdown is lifted, going by historical episodes. The statistical agencies can release the missed data as and when they are ready and need not wait the next scheduled date to release.”

“Given the absence of data releases, Fedspeaks will probably still be key and there are 13 occasions Fed officials will speak at. Overnight, Musalem said he expects the US economy to get ‘a substantial rebound in the first quarter’, citing an expected bump when the government shutdown ends, fiscal support, the impact of rate cuts already made and deregulation. Officials should approach additional interest-rate cuts with caution.”