DXY drops to 103.00 on Fed policy concerns, US PCE Inflation in focus

• US Dollar Index remains depressed at the lowest level in 12 days.
• United States data keep proposing an end to Fed’s hawkish cycle but traders seek confirmation.
• Softer US Treasury bond yields, cautious optimism at Wall Street also favor DXY bulls.
• US Core PCE Price Index, second-tier employment and activity data eyed for clear directions.

US Dollar Index (DXY) stays pressured at the lowest level in a fortnight despite lacking downside momentum amid the pre-data anxiety on Thursday. With this, the Greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies prods the key 200-DMA support of around 103.00 during the early hours of Asian session, close to 103.15 by the press time.

Having witnessed disappointing details of the US Consumer Confidence and activity data, as well as the housing market numbers, the US economic calendar marked another blow to the Federal Reserve (Fed) haws via downbeat growth and employment clues the previous day.

This time the early signal of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) lured the DXY bears as the ADP Employment Change dropped to 177K compared to 195K market forecasts and 371K previous readings (revised from 324K). On the same line, the second readings of the US second quarter (Q2) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized declined to 2.1% from 2.4% initial forecasts while the GDP Price Index also eased to 2.0% versus the first readings of 2.2%. Further, the preliminary readings of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Prices also edged lower to 2.5% from 2.6% prior estimations for the said period.

Additionally, China’s reaction to the US allegations that “it’s being risky for businesses” challenged the previous hopes of a smooth running of the Sino-American talks in Beijing. However, a slew of Chinese banks reduced mortgage rates and favored the hopes of witnessing more stimulus from the Asian major, which in turn repaired the damages to sentiment and weighed on the US Dollar’s haven demand, especially amid dovish Fed concerns.

Amid these plays, the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yields remain pressured at the lowest levels in three weeks, around 4.11% by the press time, whereas Wall Street indices closed on the positive side despite retreating during the last hours.

Looking forward, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for August, will be crucial to aptly predict the DXY moves. Also important will be the second-tier activity and employment numbers. Should these figures remain weak, the DXY may snap its six-week uptrend.

Technical analysis

Although a downside break of the six-week-old rising trend line support, now immediate resistance around 103.80, keeps the US Dollar Index bears hopeful, the 200-DMA level surrounding 103.05, quickly followed by the 103.00 threshold, challenge the DXY sellers.