Drones Will Play Important Roles In The Ukrainian Counter-Offensive

Drones play a significant role in all modern conflicts; however, their usage by Ukrainian forces in the Russia-Ukraine war is especially noteworthy. Indeed, drones played a key role in the Ukrainians halting the initial Russian invasion and limiting Russian advances over the subsequent year. As the war continues in its second year, drones are expected to continue playing a prominent role, especially as the Ukrainian military shifts into a counter-offensive.

The Ukrainian military boosted its drone inventory in preparation for and during the war, mainly using two types of drones: reconnaissance and weaponized. The Leleka-100 and A1-SM Fury are domestically produced reconnaissance drones, which are commonly used with artillery units to locate enemy troop concentrations, command posts, and artillery assets. The Ukrainians also have the Tu-141 drone, a Soviet-era model, which has only seen minimal usage. Moreover, volunteer battalions consisting of IT professionals have been using commercial quadcopters to perform surveillance on Russian forces.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian use of weaponized drones is on the rise, serving to locate and execute precise attacks on Russian forces. The U.S. has supplied the Ukrainians with Switchblade drones, which are loitering munitions that remain in the air for an extended duration before targeting and detonating. Further, commercial quadcopters have also been weaponized to drop small munitions on Russian forces. Nonetheless, the most influential drones in the Ukrainian military’s arsenal are the Bayraktar TB2 drones from Turkey, designed to target and destroy tanks. Ukrainian TB2 drones have been credited with destroying 1 helicopter, 5 naval ships, 2 logistics trains, 10 surface-to-air missile systems, and 47 ground vehicles.

As the Ukrainian military transitions to a counter-offensive, they will face new challenges. The Russians have strategically placed anti-tank obstacles, including ditches and minefields, to obstruct the Ukrainian advance. These obstacles have already been reported in Crimea and in parts of Russian-controlled Donbas. Following doctrine, when Ukrainian forces reach these obstacles, they will have to slow down to traverse them, making them easy targets for Russian artillery overwatching the obstacles. Once the obstacles have been cleared, the Ukrainians will engage Russian tanks, armored vehicles, and soldiers who are firing from protected positions. The Russian forces will inflict damage on the Ukrainian forces before falling back behind another obstacle belt, and the cycle will repeat.

During the counter-offensive, Ukrainian drones will continue to serve in the same capacity as before. They will perform surveillance missions, with a focus on locating Russian artillery units that are positioned to attack the Ukrainian forces breaching the obstacle belts. The drones will also provide critical reconnaissance data on the location of Russian defensive positions. Additionally, weaponized drones will be deployed to locate and destroy key assets, disrupting the Russian defense.

As the dynamics of the battlefield change, drones are posed to provide several new capabilities to the Ukrainians. A major issue for the Ukrainian counteroffensive will be related to obstacle clearing. While drones have can locate these obstacle belts, they can be modified to help the Ukrainians breach these obstacles. One tactic would be to drop explosives into a minefield, literally blowing a path through the minefield, similar to what is done with Russian and American mine-clearing systems. Moreover, strategically placed charges could widen an anti-tank ditch, allowing the Ukrainians forces the ability to cross it.

Another potential application for the drones would be for resupply. As units push forward through the Russian defensive lines, there is a high likelihood of units being cut off from their supply lines. Drones could offer a method to resupply these units with the ammunition and other supplies necessary for them to continue their operations.

Moreover, the Ukrainians may outfit their drones with advanced electronic warfare technology, combining two cutting edge technologies that have featured prominently in this war. Advances in electronic warfare have resulted in systems small enough that they can be carried by a drone. This equipment could disrupt the communication channels between the Russian elements while also generating false signatures of Ukrainian units.

Although the current drones in Ukraine’s conventional arsenal do not possess the necessary capabilities, the Ukrainian military has been modifying commercial and military drones for new applications. For instance, Ukrainian volunteer battalions have been modifying consumer drones for military uses. Furthermore, in October of last year, the Ukrainians reportedly outfitted the Soviet-era Tupolev Tu-141 drones with explosive payloads to destroy Russian air bases. With the continued advancements in the commercial drone market, there are several new drone models that have the potential to be valuable assets in Ukraine’s counter-offensive. For instance, new agriculture drones can fly long distances at low altitudes while carrying large payloads, which, with minor adjustments, could be militarized.

The Russia-Ukraine war has been a dynamic conflict which has seen both sides fielding new technologies to gain a tactical edge. The drone industry has been keeping up with the speed of battle, allowing the Ukrainians to field new drones with new capabilities. As the conflict progresses and evolves into a counteroffensive, Ukrainian drones will remain a prominent feature of the battle; further, there is a high likelihood that the Ukrainians will leverage drones to provide new capabilities to their forces.