Drawing A Line From Kris Murray To Khris Middleton

In the 2022 NBA Draft, the Sacramento Kings selected 6’8 forward Keegan Murray from the Iowa Hawkeyes. The sophomore had poured in averages of 23.5 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 1.5 assists and 1.3 steals per game, shooting a 55.4% field goal percentage and a .638 true shooting mark, all the while demonstrating NBA-calibre physical tools and the potential ability to play all across the frontcourt. In a three-player draft, he was an obvious candidate for the fourth pick.

The early returns have been good. Notwithstanding some inconsistencies entirely in keeping with being a rookie, Murray became an immediately valuable contributor for the resurgent Kings. The present is nice, and the future is bright. And for Keegan’s brother, Kris, this can only be beneficial.

Although he joined the Hawkeyes team at the same time as his twin, Kris’s own breakout did not begin until after Keegan’s departure. Nevertheless, given most of the minutes, touches and shot profile vacated by Keegan’s promotion, Kris put in much the same level of production in the 2022/23 season as Keegan had; per-game averages of 20.2 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.o assists, 1.2 blocks and 1.0 steals, shooting 47.6% from the field and a .578 true shooting percentage.

It all trails what his younger-by-a-few-minutes brother had done the year before, but only just. When viewed through the lens of Keegan’s relatively seamless adaption to basketball’s top level, it bodes well. And when it is further considered how far Kris has come in just two seasons – from recording only 8 points and 8 rebounds total in the entirety of his freshman campaign, to being a 20ppg, 4.7 win share, record-setting star as a junior – then everything biographical and biological about Kris seems to work in harmony for projecting a long and strong NBA career.

Nonetheless, nothing is certain. To survive and thrive as a pro, Murray will have to develop, adapt and overcome.

As with his brother, Murray will find that his shot profile in the NBA will different from the Big 10. In his junior campaign, he spent much time in the post, and while he has been extremely efficient in there – scoring 1.094 points per possession in post-up plays, per Synergy Sports – that efficiency will surely diminish against the bigger and better NBA defences. As a pro, post-up opportunities will become more situational than foundational.

Fortunately, though, there are other strings to his bow. Specifically, Murray is a very solid finisher at the rim, and despite not having the tightest handle or the biggest bag of tricks, his herky-jerky nature, decent athleticism and enthusiasm for the transition game sees him get to it often enough, without having or needing a Giannis Antetokounmpo-esque physical dominance.

He is also a projectable outside shooter – the 33.5% he shot from three-point range as a junior neither flatters him, nor tells the whole story. Murray is not a particularly good off-the-dribble shooter, but he is a solid catch-and-shoot player from outside the line, and while he could be said to resort to it too often, he demonstrates a nice-enough touch from the mid-range areas when either pulling up or posting up.

This offensive profile is not unlike that of a man who, a decade earlier, came through a similar programme with a similar game, a similar frame, and a very similar name.

In 2012, Khris Middleton – then listed at 6’7 and 220lbs – left Texas A&M to go pro after a junior season in which he had averaged 13.2 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. In a different era with less of a premium placed on three-point shooting, Middleton had not yet become a consistent threat from long range; he instead was making a living off of his knack for finagling slithers of space in tough spots to hit tough shots, taking fallaways from the mid-range, floating over shotblockers, and snaking rather than bursting his way to the rim.

At the time, this was thought to make him a fringe NBA player, and Middleton was drafted 39th overall by the Detroit Pistons accordingly. Over the following years, though, it quickly emerged that Middleton’s quirky game, savvy defence and high IQ were enough to thrive, and once he developed much better shooting range, he became a multi-time All-Star and vital Third Guy on a championship-winning Milwaukee Bucks team.

All of this would, obviously, absolutely be a best-case scenario for Kris Murray. But then, best-case scenarios tend to be what players are drafted on.

Returning to the comparison to his brother – which is annoyingly inevitable with twins, at least to us poor analysts – Keegan has demonstrated a slight edge in all facets. The two may be the same size, but Keegan looks to be slightly quicker down the court, slightly quicker off the floor, slightly stronger, and slightly quicker to cover ground defensively. He has always had a more distinct edge as a shooter, and as such, he has had priority over Kris, both at Iowa and in the draft. Kris will not go as high as fourth.

Nor, though, will he go as low as Middleton’s 39th. And if for whatever reason he is still on the board at that time, then snap him up immediately.