Dow Jones Futures: Market Rally Holds Key Levels; Cathie Wood’s New Sky-High Tesla Price Target

Dow Jones futures were little changed after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures.

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The stock market rally retreated Thursday amid earnings reports and weak economic data, though the major indexes held key levels and pared losses somewhat into the close. Tesla (TSLA) sold off as CEO Elon Musk signaled he’s willing to see profit margins fall a lot more after price cuts slammed gross margins in the first quarter. At this point, investors should move on while Tesla stock is in the repair shop.

But Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest remains a super bull on Tesla stock, predicting a $2,000 price in 2027. Ark ETFs also bought 256,000 Tesla shares.

Meanwhile, Las Vegas Sands (LVS), Iridium (IRDM) and Lam Research (LRCX) flashed buy signals on earnings.

Early Friday, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), SLB (SLB), Procter & Gamble (PG) and HCA Healthcare (HCA) report earnings. FCX stock, SLB and P&G are near buy points, while HCA stock is holding in a buy zone.

LVS stock is on IBD Leaderboard. LRCX stock is on the IBD Big Cap 20.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures edged lower vs. fair value. S&P 500 futures climbed 0.1%. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.12.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live

Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally saw modest-to-solid losses, with the major indexes trimming session lows in the final minutes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3% in Thursday’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index sank 0.6% with Lam Research a top performer while Tesla stock was Thursday’s worst. The Nasdaq composite retreated 0.8%. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.5%.

U.S. crude oil prices fell 2.4% to $77.29 a barrel.

The 10-year Treasury yield gave up 5 basis points to 3.55%.

ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) fell 0.8%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF (BOUT) dipped 0.1%. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) gave up 0.8%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) edged up 0.1%, with LRCX stock a notable holding.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) slumped 3.8% and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) retreated 2.9%. Tesla stock is a major holding across Ark Invest’s ETFs. On Thursday, Ark funds bought 256,023 TSLA shares. That’s worth $41.73 million at Thursday’s close. Cathie Wood often buys or adds shares when they’re plunging.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) lost 1.5% and the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) edged up 0.2%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) descended 1.7%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) added 0.7%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) fell 0.9% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) dipped 0.4%

The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) dipped 0.3%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) sank 1.9% amid some mixed regional bank results, but that followed Wednesday’s 3.9% jump.

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Tesla Stock

Tesla stock plunged 9.75% to 162.99  on Thursday, undercutting the low of its bottoming base to the worst levels since late January. Gross margins fell more than expected in Q1 due to multiple price cuts. Price cuts have continued in April, with Elon Musk saying on the Tesla earnings call that he’s willing to see margins fall further to boost production.

But set aside what you think about Tesla EVs or the company.

Right now, TSLA stock looks broken, below all of its moving averages. If you come across a Tesla stock chart as you run through your screens, just click the space bar and move along for now. If you want, set an early alert so if TSLA starts recovering, you’ll have an eye on it.

Cathie Wood’s TSLA Price Target

Along with Ark Invest’s new Tesla buys, Cathie Wood’s outfit also announced a new price target. It expects TSLA stock to hit $2,000 in 2027. A year ago, Ark predicted a split-adjusted TSLA price of 1,533 in 2026. Cathie Wood’s Ark sees Tesla sales between 10.3 million and 20.7 million, with massive revenue from autonomous driving.

Ark Invest has consistently predicted EV sales far above actual results, as well as making bold, Musk-esque forecasts for self-driving and robotaxis that have yet to come to pass.

Stocks In Buy Zones

Las Vegas Sands delivered strong first-quarter earnings with revenue more than doubling as the end of Covid restrictions fueled a Macau boom. LVS stock gapped up 3.7% to 61.53, breaking past a 60.40 cup-with-handle buy point. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) and MGM Resorts (MGM) flashed buy signals Thursday but slashed or erased gains. Melco Resorts (MLCO) did break out.

Iridium reported a 300% EPS gain in Q1, while revenue also topped. IRDM stock spiked 11% to 65.03, briefly breaking past a 65.51 flat-base buy point, according to MarketSmith. Better entries might have been earlier in the session, when Iridium broke a downward-sloping trending and cleared some short-term levels. IRDM stock is technically actionable here, but feels somewhat extended from the 50-day line. Shares have had a recent history of surging over a couple of days and then pulling back, forging a new consolidation. Investors may want to see if Iridium pauses near highs for a few days.

Lam Research reported mixed results and weak guidance, but investors may have feared far worse. Also, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) did not cut capital spending plans Thursday, despite reports that the chip foundry giant might do so. LRCX stock jumped 7.2% to 526.52, rebounding above the 50-day line and breaking a down-sloping trendline. Shares briefly cleared short-term resistance around 533. LRCX stock still has a 548.95 flat-base buy point.

Market Rally Analysis

The stock market rally lost ground Thursday. The Nasdaq came close to testing its 21-day line and the 12,000 level but held those levels for now. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are still above their  21-day lines.

Stepping back, the major indexes continue to trade tightly in a range. They are all about midway between their 2023 highs and the 50-day moving average.

Tesla stock was a notable drag on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite. The EV giant’s earnings and Musk’s comments triggered heavy losses in the auto sector.

But selling was widespread. Losers significantly outpaced winners Thursday.

Homebuilders were strong on D.R. Horton (DHI) earnings, while gaming stocks were winners thanks to Las Vegas Sands. Taiwan Semiconductor and Lam Research gave a boost to some chip-equipment giants, but many chip names were lackluster or lagged. Medical products are leaders, though many gave up ground Thursday.

Earnings and guidance are dominating headlines, but recession signals are growing.

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What To Do Now

If the market rally picks up steam, with the major indexes and leading stocks gaining ground amid sustained market breadth, buying opportunities would be numerous. But that’s not the case right now.

While the indexes have been relatively tight, there has been more volatility for various sectors or individual stocks.

Some stocks flashing buy signals are working, others work for a few days or a few hours.

Exposure should be modest, with your specific level largely depending on which stocks you’re holding.

Earnings season is going to add to the uncertainly, with megacaps next week leading hundreds of reports. The market could make a “decisive” move higher or lower — then reverse course the next day.

Stay engaged and flexible. Have your watchlists and your exit plans ready.

Read The Big Picture every day to stay in sync with the market direction and leading stocks and sectors.

Please follow Ed Carson on Twitter at @IBD_ECarson for stock market updates and more.

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