The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) stumbled out of the blocks in December, falling 200 points and chalking in a soft technical barrier at the 47,600 level. December is historically a strong month for equity markets, but traders are facing a collection of sentiment headwinds as they wrap up the 2025 trading year following a volatile November.
Seasonality favors equity markets, with December often a strong month for stocks. However, the Dow Jones is coming off a strong seven-month winning streak, including an almost-flat 0.2% gain in November. The rubber band may be too stretched to allow another leg higher without gassing off some pressure.
AI trade faces fresh headwinds
AI names continue to grapple with market concerns of over-stretched valuations. Tech rally darling Nvidia (NVDA) and silicon-design firm Synopsis (SNPS) both popped around 1% on Monday after Nvidia announced another supply-side circular investment scheme into Synopsis. Other names in the AI game, including Broadcom (AVGO) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI), both stumbled around 2% as profit-taking flows grip the outer edges of the AI scene.
Bitcoin catches another broadside
Crypto markets caught a fresh hit on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) declining by over 5%. Bitcoin has once again fallen below 90,000, stumbling into the 85,000 region and putting the marquee cryptocurrency on pace for a third straight month of inflationary declines in December. BTC tumbled 17.5% in November after falling nearly 4% in October.
Fed rate cuts are coming… eventually?
Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut expectations are spreading into a messy pool heading into the tail end of the year. Rate markets are still pricing in nearly 90% odds of a third straight interest rate cut on December 10. However, rate traders are also pricing in 88% odds that the Fed will hold off in December and deliver a quarter-point rate trim in January.
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs
The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.
Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.
Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.
There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.