Don’t Let China Become The New Forever War

The crisis in Ukraine was high on many people’s list of concerns when the Pentagon released its Fiscal Year 2023 budget request on March 31. But while Pentagon briefers of course mentioned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, they quickly pivoted to discussing China as the “pacing threat” that should be the primary focus of U.S. military strategy and spending in the years to come.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin went so far as to call the challenge from China the “now and forever problem.” His choice of phrasing was unfortunate given what happened with regard to America’s other alleged “forever problems” in the so-called global war on terror — decades of war that ended badly, to put it mildly. While hopefully it won’t come to a hot war between the United States and China, a permanent adversarial stance will come at high risk — and high costs.

As the Costs of War Project at Brown University has documented, America’s post-9/11 wars have cost over $8 trillion, with over 380,000 civilian deaths and tens of millions of people driven from their homes. Thousands of U.S. troops have died in the conflicts, with hundreds of thousands more suffering physical and psychological injuries.

The main rationale given for this immense sacrifice of blood and treasure was what was initially called the Global War on Terror (GWOT), which many of its supporters described as a generational struggle – a war that might never end. With the Afghan war lasting twenty years and the war in Iraq liable to hit the same mark next year, this may be the only thing that the supporters of these wars got right – their near endless duration.

An approach to terrorism that focused on intelligence, law enforcement, and protecting key facilities would likely have been more effective, and at a far lower human and economic cost. But the funds have been spent and the damage has been done, so the only thing left to do is assess how and why we let these wars drag on, and how to avoid similar mistakes in the future.

China poses a different kind of challenge than global terrorism, but the costs of getting China policy wrong could be as great or greater than the Pentagon’s disastrous mishandling of global terrorism. The challenge from China is as much or more political and economic as it is military, and a military-first approach on the part of the United States is a high-risk proposition that is unlikely to make anyone safer, here, in East Asia, or around the world.

The United States outspends China roughly three to one on its military, and that’s before one even counts spending by U.S. regional allies like Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. The United States has 13 times as many nuclear weapons in its active stockpile as China does, and many times more aircraft carriers, combat aircraft, and other major weapons systems. The biggest challenge in the U.S. military competition with China is distance – America seeks to bottle up its main military rival in its own front yard, thousands of miles from our shores. But whether doing so is wise or necessary is rarely asked in the Pentagon, where spinning out warfighting scenarios for a U.S.-China conflict takes precedence over a more nuanced approach that is far more likely to be effective.

The Ukraine crisis has sparked oceans of commentary on whether Russia’s invasion there will prompt China to invade Taiwan, either now or in the near future. If anything, Russia’s experience in Ukraine would give China’s leadership pause about military action against Taiwan, given the difficulties – and high casualties – suffered by the Russian military. An amphibious assault against a well-armed adversary would be even more challenging. The key in preventing a Chinese invasion is more political than military. The most important objectives should be to avoid further militarizing the situation or giving signals that the U.S. might change its “one China” policy in favor of support for formal independence for Taiwan.

The most critical element of the U.S.-China relationship – and the one with the greatest consequences for the future of the planet – is to find a way to cooperate on reducing the global output of greenhouse gases. As the two nations with the largest carbon footprints, it is imperative that the U.S. and China take a leadership role in transforming their energy, production, and consumption patterns to help head off the worst potential effects of climate change. Taking on the climate challenge is the greatest security issue of our time, despite claims to the contrary by hawkish analysts seeking to return to a Cold War geopolitical paradigm.

The ultimate goal of U.S. China policy should be to find a way to cooperate on solving joint problems, not engaging in military gamesmanship or sparking a new arms race. The last thing America needs is a new “forever war,” this time with a nuclear-armed power. Secretary Austin should rethink his rhetoric on China, and the Pentagon should rethink its policy.