Key insights
- President Donald Trump planned a Friday announcement on his Fed chair replacement.
- Kevin M. Warsh led prediction odds, while markets watched rates closely.
- Trump attacked Jerome H. Powell after the Fed held rates steady.
President Donald Trump prepared a Friday announcement for his Fed chair pick. People familiar with his plans said he leaned toward Kevin M. Warsh.
The decision mattered because markets stayed sensitive to rates and liquidity. Traders treated the Trump Fed chair pick as a macro catalyst, not politics.
CryptosRus wrote that yields, the dollar, and risk assets depended on it. Trump also pushed for sharp rate cuts as borrowing costs held firm.
Donald Trump Fed Chair Pick Centered on Warsh
People familiar with the process said Trump met Warsh at the White House on Thursday. Donald Trump told reporters he would announce someone “known to everybody.”
He also hinted that the person could have served years earlier.
Trump had nearly picked Warsh during his first term, the sources said. Donald Trump instead chose Jerome H. Powell as the Fed Chair, then criticized him often. Trump targeted Powell for resisting pressure to cut borrowing costs.
Trump said he wanted a chair who backed lower rates. He noted interest rates stood at 3.5% to 3.75%. He also called for rates near 1%, according to the same account.
Trump attacked the Federal Reserve after it held rates steady on Wednesday. He wrote that Powell had “absolutely no reason” to keep rates unchanged. He also used harsh language about Powell on social media.
A White House spokesperson did not respond to requests about Warsh, the report said. The same account said no decision became final before an announcement. That left room for late shifts despite the direction.
Kevin Warsh Odds Rose on Polymarket as Markets Watched Rates
Polymarket data showed Warsh at about 94% for the Fed Chair role. The same market listed Rick Rieder near 3.1%. It placed Judy Shelton near 2.1% and Kevin Hassett under 1%.
The Polymarket screen showed $302,612,171 in total volume for the question. It also showed “Buy Yes” around 94 cents for Warsh. That implied traders assigned a high probability before Friday.
Amit, who posted under amitisinvesting, said Trump narrowed the list. He wrote that Donald Trump weighed Warsh and Rick Rieder. He also wrote Trump leaned toward Warsh and ruled out Hassett.
Crypto Rover posted “BREAKING” that Trump would nominate Warsh, citing Bloomberg. Another post from Crypto Wall Street said odds rose to 94%. That account described Warsh as “crypto-friendly,” without evidence.
CryptosRus framed the Trump Fed chair pick as a market stress point. He said markets already reacted to bond moves and liquidity shifts. He warned that yields and the dollar would respond first.
Warsh Background, Powell Probe, and Fed Independence Tension
Warsh served as a Federal Reserve governor from 2006 to 2011. President George W. Bush appointed him, the report said.
The report also said Warsh supported lower rates but demanded “regime change.” Despite the Fed Chair optimism, the same account said Warsh had deep Wall Street ties.
It said he worked with billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller. It also said Druckenmiller stayed close with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
The report said Bessent led the Fed chair search process. It said the White House considered more than 10 candidates. It named Kevin A. Hassett and Christopher J. Waller as earlier contenders.
The report said Rick Rieder of BlackRock also reached finalist status. Trump said publicly he wanted Hassett to stay at the White House. That stance narrowed the late-stage field, the report implied.
The report linked Hassett’s decline to a Justice Department investigation involving Powell. It said the department opened a criminal probe and issued grand jury subpoenas. It also said that happened earlier this month.
Powell responded with an extraordinary video, the report said. He said the administration used legal threats as “pretexts” for rate cuts. He said the effort aimed to coerce the central bank, the report said.
Crypto Rover also posted that Powell said inflation remained elevated. He contrasted that with Truflation data near yearly lows. He did not provide the Truflation figure or date in the post.
Fed Chair Outlook
The Donald Trump Fed chair pick set up an immediate test for bond markets on Friday. CryptosRus said yields, the dollar, and risk assets depended on the choice. Traders also watched how the White House framed rate policy.
Trump’s pressure campaign against Powell suggested a policy clash continued. He demanded rates near 1% while policy stayed 3.5% to 3.75%. The announcement timing kept markets focused on Friday morning headlines.