Dogecoin’s LTHs In ‘Denial’ — Why It Could Still Be Right For Them To Hold On?

Dogecoin Long-Term Holder NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) suggested that long-term DOGE holders are currently in a state of denial as their unrealized profits decline.

Initially, in early December, DOGE holders were in a state of euphoria, suggesting that their unrealized profits were high and expectations were strong.

However, by mid-December, the sentiment shifted to belief, marking a transition where investors were still confident but facing reality as the price began to decline.

DOGE price also saw a sharp drop in late December, coinciding with a decrease in NUPL from above 0.72 to nearly 0.48.

Throughout January and February, the NUPL remained in the belief zone, even as the price trended downward.

This suggested that holders expect a recovery despite declining profits, characteristic of denial in market cycles.

If the trend continues downward, a transition to fear or capitulation could follow, leading to panic selling.

Conversely, if demand picks up and price stabilizes, optimism and a return to belief could occur, reinforcing market resilience.

DOGE Follows 2017-2018 Pattern

Further analysis shows Dogecoin price appears to be replicating its 2017-2018 bull run pattern, signaling a potential major breakout. This highlighted a large descending triangle from 2015 to 2017, followed by a strong breakout rally.

The price consolidated within this structure before a parabolic surge occurred. Now, DOGE is forming a similar pattern between 2021 and 2025, with a well-defined descending triangle, lower highs, and compressed price action.

The previous breakout from the 2017 pattern sent DOGE soaring from approximately $0.0003 to over $0.01, a 3,000% gain.

If history repeats itself, DOGE could move from its current consolidation range around $0.08-$0.50 to over $0.70 or even $1.00. DOGE price first saw compression then accumulation, similar to the 2017 structure.

If Dogecoin price follows the same trajectory, it could see an explosive rally, potentially pushing prices beyond $1.00 in the next cycle.

However, failure to break out could lead to prolonged consolidation, delaying a bull move. Whether history repeats itself or diverges, Dogecoin’s next move is approaching a critical juncture.

Dogecoin Price Monthly Trend

Additionally, the monthly chart revealed a clear uptrend as long as Dogecoin price remains inside the rising channel.

The structure mirrors previous 50-bar cycles, with a major breakout occurring after each cycle completion.

Historically, DOGE surged following these consolidation phases, as seen in January 2018 and May 2021, both marked by strong bullish impulses.

Currently, DOGE is trading at $0.3347, just under the $0.3350 resistance level, which serves as a key trigger for bullish continuation.

If price breaks and holds above $0.3350, the next levels to watch are $0.4700, $0.9650, and potentially $2.10.

The extension suggested a long-term move towards $5.00 or higher, should DOGE replicate past performance.

Conversely, failure to sustain momentum within the channel could lead to a retest of $0.1150, the lower support. A breakdown from this level would indicate further downside towards $0.0420.

However, if DOGE follows its historical pattern, a major surge is imminent, making $0.3350 the crucial pivot point for the next rally.