Key Insights
- Dogecoin (DOGE) price is holding steady as selling pressure fades, with bullish signals forming beneath the surface.
- A reclaim of the 20-day EMA is the key trigger that could unlock a move toward the $0.158 level.
- On-chain data shows fewer coins moving and small whales adding exposure, supporting a potential rebound setup.
Dogecoin price was down about 1% over the past seven days and has moved very little day to day. On a monthly view, DOGE price is still down around 2.5%.
That keeps sentiment soft, even as the wider crypto market stays calm. But when the price goes quiet, it does not always mean nothing is happening. In Dogecoin’s case, several signals under the surface are starting to line up.
They do not point to a confirmed rally yet. They suggest that selling pressure may be easing and that the price is trying to steady itself. Let us explore the signs now!
A Familiar Dogecoin Price Signal Is Appearing Again
The first clue comes from the price chart and RSI. Between Dec. 18 and Jan. 25, DOGE price made a lower low.
At the same time, RSI made a higher low. This is called a bullish divergence. It usually shows that sellers are losing strength, even if the price has not turned higher yet.
This is not the first time Dogecoin (DOGE) price has shown this pattern. The same setup appeared in late December when RSI didn’t exactly make a higher low but touched the same level, still a divergence.
After that signal, Dogecoin price rallied about 35% in a short period. That does not mean the same move must happen again.
It shows that the market has reacted to this signal before. Right now, price is once again holding while momentum quietly improves.
The rebound has already started in a small way, but it is not confirmed. For that, DOGE price needs to clear an important short-term level.
DOGE Price 20-Day EMA Is the Critical Line Now
The next step for Dogecoin price is technical. DOGE Price needs to move back above the 20-day EMA.
The last time Dogecoin reclaimed the 20-day EMA was on Jan. 2. After that reclaim, the price moved up close to 20%.
That move happened quickly, not slowly. Do note that this move was part of the bigger 35% rally. Right now, Dogecoin is trying to do the same thing again.
The bullish divergence set the base. The EMA reclaim is the trigger that traders could be watching.
If DOGE price stays below the 20-day EMA, the market remains cautious. If the price moves above it and holds, momentum can return faster than many expect. This is where on-chain data adds support to what the chart is showing.
Fewer Coins Are Moving As Whales Reappear
On-chain data shows that Dogecoin holders are not rushing to sell. Since Jan. 26, spent coin activity has dropped sharply.
It fell from around 158 million DOGE to about 41.9 million DOGE. When fewer coins move, it often means holders are waiting. It suggests less pressure from people trying to exit positions.
At the same time, smaller whales are slowly adding exposure. Wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million DOGE increased their balances from 10.95 billion coins to 10.96 billion coins. The change is small, but the direction matters.
These holders are not chasing price. They are adding while the price is quiet. That lines up with the bullish divergence seen on the chart.
Derivatives data also keeps risk contained. Short positions still outweigh long positions. This limits the squeeze risk, but it also reduces the chance of a sharp downside if the price starts to move up.
Dogecoin Price Levels That Matter Now
The upside path for Dogecoin price is clear, but it depends on follow-through. A clean move above the 20-day EMA opens room toward the $0.158 area.
That would be roughly a 30%-35% move for DOGE price from current levels. This matches the size of the last rally that followed a similar setup.
The downside is also clear. If Dogecoin falls below $0.117, the setup breaks. That level acts as the line where the idea no longer holds.
For now, Dogecoin price is not strong. It is steady. Selling has slowed.
Momentum is improving, and DOGE whales are not leaving. A 30% rebound is possible, but it depends on price reclaiming short-term trend control and holding support where it is now.