Dogecoin Price Analysis: Will Short-Term Support Hold or Will $0.15 Be Tested?

Dogecoin price is down by 5% in the past 24 hours and is currently trading at a market price of $0.1898. With Bitcoin down at $86,000 mark, the short-term recovery in the meme coin market is taking a hit. 

The market capitalization of the meme coin segment has dropped by 5.8% to reach $54.75 billion. As the meme coins are falling, will Dogecoin price retest the $0.15 psychological support? Let’s find out.  

Dogecoin Price Analysis

In the daily chart, the Dogecoin price action showcases a bullish failure to overcome the crucial resistance of the $0.20 mark. The higher price rejection has led to an intraday pullback of 1.77%, creating a potential tweezer top reversal. 

However, the short-term pullback also hints at a potential retest of the recent range breakout, overcoming the 23.60% Fibonacci resistance level at $0.1820. Dogecoin price recently found a new bullish momentum. 

After four consecutive bullish candles, the short-term pullback comes as a breather phase. Currently, the pullback is likely to find support at the resistance-turned-support level at 23.60% Fibonacci level and the 20-day EMA line. 

Supporting the upside chances of a bullish continuation, the MACD and signal lines are positive and maintain a bullish histogram growth. Hence, the momentum indicator maintains an optimistic viewpoint. 

Based on the Fibonacci levels, an uptrend continuation will likely challenge the 200-day EMA line close to the 38.20% level at $0.23. On the flip side, the crucial support remains the baseline of the previous consolidation range close to the $0.15 mark.

Dogecoin On-Chain Metrics

In a recent tweet by Glassnode, the on-chain metrics platform showcased the URPD data of Dogecoin, revealing that 7% of DOGE’s supply is concentrated at the $0.20 level. This marks it as a crucial resistance zone for Dogecoin. 

URPD shows 7% of $DOGE supply is concentrated at $0.20 – the third-largest cluster after $0.17 and $0.07. This level saw big inflows around Jan 22, but wallets likely bought earlier, raising their cost basis. $0.20 may act as resistance near-term. pic.twitter.com/vHvylx3MdN

— glassnode (@glassnode) March 26, 2025

According to the platform, a bullish breakout above $0.20 could lead to a price surge towards $0.31 due to limited supply pressure beyond this level. Furthermore, 15% of DOGE’s supply was last moved 6-12 months ago. This signals a strong conviction in investors who purchased before the Nov-Dec rally. 

The futures open interest of Dogecoin is currently at $1B. This is significantly lower compared to the Nov-Dec rally at $3B of OI. As per the platform, the 7-day simple moving average of futures volume is rising and is currently at Oct-2024 levels. 

This highlights room for growth and cements the short-term rally as a spot market-driven recovery rather than a leverage-driven speculation. Supporting the thesis of Dogecoin rally being a spot market-driven reversal, the funding rates are on a declining trend. 

Over the past two days, the funding rates are close to neutral levels. Confirming the short-term move is not driven by excessively long positions.

Written by
Sahil Mahadik

As a full-time trader with over three years of hands-on experience in the financial markets, I have honed an exceptional proficiency in technical analysis, which is the cornerstone of my daily monitoring of price fluctuations in leading assets and indices. My journey into trading began with a deep fascination for financial instruments, and this curiosity naturally expanded into the ever-evolving world of cryptocurrencies. I am currently contributing to CryptoNewsZ and have also written for Coingape, The Coin Republic and TheMarketPeriodical. I am driven by my passion for the markets and want to explore new opportunities, I analyze emerging trends and strategies to get maximum returns in traditional and crypto markets.