Key Insights:
- The first spot Dogecoin ETF (GDOG) recorded $1.4 million in day-one volume on November 24, falling short of the $12 million predicted by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas.
- Balchunas attributed the subdued launch to market distance from Bitcoin, stating, “the further away you get from BTC, the less asset there will be.”
- GDOG’s debut trailed recent spot XRP and Solana ETF launches by more than $56 million in first-day volume.
The first spot Dogecoin ETF launched on November 24, with $1.4 million in trading volume, significantly below Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas’s $12 million day-one forecast.
Grayscale’s GDOG became the first memecoin-related ETF in the US, but attracted roughly 10 times less volume than initially projected. Balchunas called the performance “solid for an average launch but low for a ‘first-ever spot’ product.”
Distance From Bitcoin Dampened Demand
Balchunas explained the subdued launch through a pattern observed across altcoin ETF debuts. He cited a principle his team coined earlier: “The further away you get from BTC, the less asset there will be.”
Dogecoin ranked 10th among cryptocurrencies, with a market cap of $23.2 billion as of November 25. Among spot altcoin ETFs launched in the US, the Dogecoin ETF represented the most distant asset from Bitcoin’s market capitalization.
The memecoin status added another layer of distance from traditional crypto assets. GDOG marked the first memecoin-based ETF approved for US trading, a category lacking the institutional adoption seen in established cryptocurrencies.
Dogecoin price remained flat following the ETF launch, sliding 0.1% to $0.1531 as of press time. The muted price reaction contrasted with expectations that ETF approval would drive demand.
Growing Altcoin Capitulation Weighed on Launch
Market sentiment toward altcoins shifted toward capitulation ahead of the Dogecoin ETF debut. Glassnode reported on November 25 that “realized losses among new investors in major altcoins are rising, as prices continue to struggle to recover.”
The on-chain analytics firm highlighted growing stress across the speculative end of the market. New investors absorbed losses as altcoin prices failed to recover from recent declines.
The timing suggested investors doubted an approaching alt season and chose to de-risk instead.
Considering that DOGE is a memecoin, the asset lacked the utility narratives or institutional backing that supported ETF launches for layer-1 blockchains.
Recent Altcoin ETF Launches Outperformed GDOG
The first spot XRP ETF (XRPC) logged $58 million in day-one volume, the highest of any ETF launched in 2025. The launch barely edged out the first spot, the Solana ETF (BSOL), which recorded $57 million in debut trading.
XRPC and BSOL formed a league of their own among 2025 ETF launches. Third place trailed by over $20 million, while GDOG’s $1.4 million debut ranked significantly lower.
XRP held the seventh-largest crypto market cap, while Solana ranked fifth. Both assets maintained stronger institutional adoption and utility cases compared to Dogecoin’s memecoin positioning.
The performance gap illustrated Balchunas’s distance principle in practice. ETFs tracking assets closer to Bitcoin’s market position attracted substantially more day-one capital.
XRPC and BSOL benefited from established DeFi ecosystems and enterprise partnerships. Dogecoin’s origins as a parody cryptocurrency and its limited utility applications kept it further from institutional investment thresholds.
Memecoin ETF Faces Uphill Battle
GDOG entered a market reeling from one of crypto’s worst months on record. Bitcoin dropped 30% from its $126,000 October peak to below $81,000 by late November, wiping over $1 trillion from the total crypto market cap.
The crypto fear and greed index hit 10 on November 24, remaining in extreme fear territory for multiple consecutive days. Deutsche Bank analysts noted the downturn occurred “amid substantial institutional participation,” contrasting with prior retail-driven crashes.
The timing left GDOG launching into what analysts call a “knife’s edge” environment. December Fed rate cut expectations swung from 30% to 80% within days, creating volatility that deterred speculative plays.
The first spot Dogecoin ETF debuted during a period when institutional money fled risk assets, validating Balchunas’s prediction that distance from Bitcoin would limit demand.