Dogecoin (DOGE) is under pressure. The coin has recovered from its slump yesterday, gaining 0.35% in the past day and 1.29% this week. It was trading close to $0.21 at press time.
Despite recent dip and meagre gains, the bigger picture still looks positive. Dogecoin price was up 8% over the past month, 16.8% in three months, and more than 116% in one year.
But the near-term picture looks heavy, and whales may be the reason why.
Weak Demand Signals Pressure on Dogecoin Price
One of the most worrying signs right now is the Money Flow Index (MFI). This tool measures buying and selling pressure. It combines price and volume to show if money is flowing in or out of an asset.
A high MFI, above 80, usually means the coin is overbought. A low MFI, below 20, usually means it is oversold.
For DOGE, the MFI has fallen below 40. This sharp drop means that fewer coins are being bought while selling pressure builds.
Traders often see this as a sign that demand is slowing down. When fewer people buy and more people sell, prices usually move down.
At the same time, this dip in MFI shows that buyers are not stepping in strongly even at cheaper prices.
That lack of dip-buying can make corrections last longer and go deeper than expected. And if selling comes in at this time, the price action could feel additional spells of stress.
Whale Selling Adds Stress Despite ETF Hopes
Another reason for the weak picture comes from whales. On-chain data from Santiment shows that whales sold around 200 million DOGE in just two days.
Whale selling usually matters more than retail buying because of the sheer size of their holdings. When whales sell, it adds a sudden supply that the market must absorb.
Right now, retail traders are still buying DOGE. Exchange flows show many small buyers adding coins as weekly netflows are still in the red. This means coins are leaving exchanges.
But this demand has not been enough to balance the large exits from whales. This puts added weight on the $0.20 support zone.
If this level breaks, the next supports sit at $0.178 and $0.15. That would be about a 15% drop from current levels.
There is still one big story traders are watching: the DOGE ETF.
Asset manager REX-Osprey has filed with the U.S. SEC to launch DOJE, the first Dogecoin ETF. The fund would invest mainly in Dogecoin and related products like futures.
If approved, it could give traditional investors a way to buy DOGE through the stock market. For now, though, the optimism is muted because whales are selling and other signals remain weak.
Derivatives, or futures contracts, often fuel bigger moves for DOGE. In July, open interest in DOGE futures stood at $5.35 billion.
Now, it has dropped to $3.27 billion. That is more than a 35% decline in less than two months.
Open interest tells us how much money is tied up in active futures bets. When it is high, it shows strong speculative demand, and prices often swing bigger.
When it is low, it shows traders are less interested, and the upside push gets weaker. Right now, the falling open interest means less firepower for sharp rallies.
So the chart comes back to key levels. On the upside, DOGE must reclaim $0.229 to show strength.
A stronger break above $0.24 could open the path to $0.27 or even $0.28. On the downside, if $0.20 fails, prices could slide quickly toward $0.178 and possibly $0.15.
For now, whales are pressing harder than retail buyers, MFI shows weak demand, and futures bets are cooling.
Together, these signs point to the risk of a 15% DOGE price dip unless buyers can move the short-term picture back in their favor.