Dodgers Shohei Ohtani Leads Wide Open NL MVP Chase

We’re over two-thirds of the way through the regular season, so it’s time to take my first looks at the Cy Young and MVP races in both leagues. Earlier this week, I looked at the AL and NL Cy Young races. Now it’s on to the MVP chases, starting with the AL yesterday, and now the NL..

If you’re new to my work, I take a slightly different approach to evaluation of current season performance. It’s a purely analytical approach, and relies on batted ball data. I simply take every batted ball hit by every qualifying MLB hitter, and calculate the damage they “should have” produced based on their exit speed/launch angle mix. That’s expressed by their Adjusted Contact Score – 100 equals league average, the higher the number the better. I then add back the Ks and BBs to determine each hitter’s “Tru” Production+, and then spread it across their plate appearance bulk to determine their “Tru” Batting Runs Above Average. I then add Fangraphs baserunning and defensive runs into the mix, resulting in “Tru” Player Runs Above Average (TPRAA).

While using replacement level as a baseline typically makes sense when doing most kinds of player evaluation, I find league average to be quite useful in evaluating elite performance, i.e., for award voting, Hall of Fame-worthiness, etc..

This analysis goes through games played on July 31, and includes all players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title as of that date. This does not include Diamondbacks’ 2B Ketel Marte, who didn’t qualify then, but does now. He was on my ballot last year and could be again this year. It also does not include Phillies’ DH Kyle Schwarber (14.5 “Tru” Player Runs Above Average), who is starting to get some award buzz and is currently #11 on this 10-man list. He’s a bomber for sure, but gets dinged big-time for his lack of complementary skills. It should be noted that this is shaping as one of the wildest league MVP battles in recent memory. Let’s get to it.

HONORABLE MENTIONS

Reds’ SS Elly De La Cruz (14.8 TPRAA) is really good already, but is only scratching the surface of his potential. His walk rate has begun to improve, and the rough edges have begun to be sanded off of his complementary defensive and baserunning skills. That said, he’s been fortunate across all batted ball types, and “should be” hitting .253-.332-.434, well below his actual current level. It’s been a nightmarish season in Atlanta, but Braves’ 1B Matt Olson (16.4 TPRAA) hasn’t let it affect him. He’s been incredibly unlucky on line drives this season, batting only .573 AVG-.760 SLG for an 81 Unadjusted Liner Contact Score, way below his adjusted 112 mark. This has cost him 36 points of SLG thus far. Marlins’ LF Kyle Stowers (16.9 TPRAA) has been one of the first half’s most unexpected breakthroughs. While he’s clearly a bat-first guy, he’s a respectable corner outfield defender. And the power is real – his 250 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score trails only Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and Schwarber among players we’ll discuss today.

Padres’ SS Manny Machado (19.8 TPRAA) remains one of the very best all-around players in the game. He hits his fly balls, liners and grounders materially harder than league average, putting up solid power numbers in a pitcher-friendly park without maintaining a particularly high fly ball rate. His defense might not be quite what it used to be, but it’s still plenty good enough for him to remain at the hot corner for the foreseeable future. Cubs’ RF Kyle Tucker (21.4 TPRAA) has stepped into a leadership role for a quality Cub squad in his free agent walk year. Tucker does not crush his fly balls – his Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is roughly league average at 103. He compensates with plenty of fly ball volume,and plenty of contact, period. He had comfortably more walks (74) than whiffs (63) through July 31.

THE TOP FIVE

#5 – RF Corbin Carroll (Diamondbacks) – 22.2 TPRAA – Carroll is one of the more unique players in the game today. 20-triple guys don’t grow on trees in the modern era, and he’s making a strong run at that benchmark. But despite his considerable speed, it’s his power rather than his on-base ability that is at the forefront of his offensive game. His 216 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is 4th highest among the 10 players on this ballot. Factors working against him taking it to still another level are a low walk rate and a fairly extreme grounder-pulling tendency. His defense is well above average on an outfield corner, and more than playable in center field.

#4 – CF Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) – 26.5 TPRAA – Crow-Armstrong is currently considered by many to be the NL MVP frontrunner. I see him as squarely in the mix, but sitting a bit off of the pace. The defensive and baserunning value he brings is without peer in the senior circuit, but offensively he’s only a slightly above average player after adjusting for batted ball authority. He’s an extreme pull hitter, and he mishits a lot of balls, especially in the air. Only the #1 and 3 players among this Top 10 have hit more 105+ mph fly balls than Crow-Armstrong, but his average fly ball exit speed of 91.8 mph is easily dead last among them. His poor K/BB profile also needs some work. We may be looking a very early career offensive peak from Crow-Armstrong.

#3 – RF Juan Soto (Mets) – 28.8 TPRAA – Huh, what? Mr. Non All Star guy? Yup. Soto has been ridiculously unlucky on balls in play this season, with both his actual Unadjusted Fly Ball (248) and Line Drive (94) Contact Scores way below their comparative adjusted marks of 344 and 119. That 344 mark is higher than even Aaron Judge’s, and his 100.4 mph average fly ball exit speed is 2nd only to the #1 guy below. Soto “should be” batting .268-.399-.567, well above his current levels. All that said, he cuts into his offensive value with poor defensive and baserunning performances. Don’t be surprised by a furious offensive onslaught from Soto down the stretch.

#2 – RF Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres) – 29.9 TPRAA – Very quietly, Tatis has raised the floor of his all-around game considerably without materially compromising its ceiling. He has gradually improved his K/BB profile, and can now work an at bat with the best of them. Machado is the only other player in this Top 10 whose average fly ball, line drive and grounder exit speeds all exceed 90 mph. Like Machado, Tatis sprays the ball to all fields, even on the ground, another reason he can be depended upon to hit for a solid batting average, even while playing his home games in a pitchers’ park. On top of it all, he has emerged as one of the game’s finest defensive right fielders.

#1 – DH Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) – 33.8 TPRAA – I can hear the question already…..how can DH Ohtani be #1 while DH Schwarber is #11? Couple reasons. First, Ohtani is a great baserunner in addition to being a great hitter, while Schwarber is, to be kind, not. Secondly, Ohtani has been very unlucky on balls in play this season – his Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is a scary high 396, well above even his strong unadjusted mark of 328. (Schwarber is at 409 Unadjusted, 311 Adjusted). Ohtani’s 100.6 average fly ball exit speed is the highest in MLB. Ohtani “should be” hitting .274-.374-.616, even better than his gaudy present numbers. Also, I have made an executive decision to NOT include his pitching numbers at this time. I’m measuring distance above league average in this exercise, and I refuse to penalize this guy even by a fraction of a point as he tries to work his way back from Tommy John surgery.

Presently, Fangraphs WAR has Crow-Armstrong (5.7 WAR), Ohtani (4.8) and Tatis Jr. (4.3) 1-2-3 in the NL MVP race.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tonyblengino/2025/08/07/dodgers-shohei-ohtani-leads-wide-open-nl-mvp-chase/