Dodgers Look For 10th NL West Title In 11 Seasons Despite Historic Talent Loss

Throughout March, I’ve been taking a look at the Opening Day true-talent rankings of the 30 MLB clubs on a division-by-division basis. While the rankings are based on actual 2022 batted-ball data, off-season player movement and potential impact of 2023 rookies will be addressed. We’ve already covered the AL East, NL East, AL Central, NL Central and AL West. Today, we wrap it up with the NL West.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers – “Tru” Talent Record = 116-46 – Offensive Rating = 115.7 (3rd), Pitching Rating = 79.8 (1st), Defensive Rating = 90.8 (2nd); IN: RHP Noah Syndergaard, SS Miguel Rojas, DH J.D. Martinez, LF David Peralta; OUT: SS Trea Turner, LHP Tyler Anderson, CF Cody Bellinger, 3B Justin Turner, LF Joey Gallo, RHP Trevor Bauer, LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Craig Kimbrel, RHP Chris Martin

That’s a lot of talent walking out the door. Turner is obviously a star, Anderson was arguably the Dodgers’ ace in 2022, Bellinger is a former MVP and Turner has been a rock-solid fixture at 3B. Gallo was a lottery ticket that didn’t pay off. On the mound, Bauer is a fallen staff ace, Kimbrel was the club’s primary closer, and Heaney and Martin put up utterly insane K/BB ratios last season in limited duty.

When the Dodgers let players go, they typically simply reload. Not so much this time. as the club is still on the hook for $22.5 million of Bauer’s 2023 salary after the end of his suspension for off-field behavior. Their issues were amplified by the season-ending injury to SS Gavin Lux early in the pre-season. Their everyday lineup now contains a bottom four of Peralta-Trayce Thompson-rookie 2B Miguel Vargas-Rojas, which doesn’t read “elite”. They’ll be more dependent on superstars Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts than ever in 2023.

Now Vargas could well turn out to be another in a long line of quality homegrown everyday regulars. Michael Busch is right on his heels and could also be part of the 2B answer, and C Diego Cartaya has the ability to be a quality everyday receiver, a la incumbent Will Smith. The club may again need to draw upon its significant organizational pitching depth. While Ryan Pepiot will likely get the first opportunity in the fifth starter role, Gavin Stone and Bobby Miller could battle for rotation spots before long. Stone has an exceptional changeup and solid pitchability while Miller’s raw stuff is superior. Keep an eye on righty Nick Nastrini and lefty Ronan Kopp as well; both have great stuff and simply need to throw more strikes.

2. San Diego Padres – “Tru” Talent Record = 88-74 – Offensive Rating = 101.3 (12th), Pitching Rating = 95.6 (11th), Defensive Rating = 96.8 (8th); IN: SS Xander Bogaerts, RF Matt Carpenter, RHP Seth Lugo, DH Nelson Cruz, RHP Michael Wacha; OUT: RHP Mike Clevinger, 1B Josh Bell, LHP Sean Manaea, UT Brandon Drury, 1B Wil Myers, LF Jurickson Profar, RHP Pierce Johnson

Very quietly, a whole lot of talent walked out of the Padres’ door in the offseason. Almost half of their everyday lineup in Bell/Drury/Myers/Profar and almost half of their rotation in Manaea/Clevinger. Sure, they’ve been in high-end player acquisition mode for a while now, locking up the likes of Manny Machado, Yu Darvish and Fernando Tatis Jr. prior to this offseason’s Bogaerts signing. It’s probably only a matter of time before they lock up Juan Soto as well.

Like the Dodgers, there are questions at the positions not manned by these superstars. Is Jake Cronenworth a legitimate 1B offensively? Is Cruz cooked? Should Carpenter own fielder’s gloves at this stage of his career? Plus, the club has largely emptied its farm system in pursuit of all of these superstars. Most of their better prospects are very far from the big leagues. Teenage OF Samuel Zavala arguably has the most upside; he’s a hit-before-power guy whose power should develop in time. SS Jackson Merrill moves well considering his large frame, and has a chance to develop into a 20-homer guy at a defense-first position. Long, lean righty Victor Lizarraga is one of their premier pitching prospects; his secondary stuff needs refinement, but as a teenager with a big arm, he’s got plenty of time.

3. San Francisco Giants – “Tru” Talent Record = 83-79 – Offensive Rating = 100.1 (14th), Pitching Rating = 90.7 (7th), Defensive Rating = 107.9 (29th); IN: RF Mitch Haniger, LF Michael Conforto, RHP Ross Stripling, LHP Sean Manaea, LHP Taylor Rogers; OUT: LHP Carlos Rodon, 3B Evan Longoria, 1B Brandon Belt

In 2021 the Giants became the only team to interrupt the Dodgers’ now-decade-long streak of NL West championships. Many are still trying to figure out exactly how that happened. This bunch has shown an aptitude for playing above its talent, largely due to strong pitching performances. Carlos Rodon, their clear recent ace, has moved on, but Manaea and Stripling could be the next to find their careers revved up by the Bay.

Offensively, they’ve turned the page on two long-term fixtures in Belt and Longoria, hoping to see their production replaced and their durability enhanced by Conforto and Haniger. Unfortunately, availability has never been Haniger’s strong suit – he’s sidelined at present with an oblique strain.

The Giants’ farm system has been hamstrung by some position player disappointments of late, with 3B Marco Luciano and outfielders Luis Matos and Heliot Ramos all regressing a bit, though high hopes remain for Luciano in particular. On the mound, lefty Kyle Harrison has emerged as the clear best prospect in the system. He combines stuff, command and deception and should be in the big league rotation by midseason. Keep an eye on righty Landen Roupp, whose breaking ball is major league ready. Improvement of the remainder of his repertoire could make him a future starter.

4. Arizona Diamondbacks – “Tru” Talent Record = 67-95 – Offensive Rating = 92.2 (25th), Pitching Rating = 111.5 (26th), Defensive Rating = 99.0 (13th); IN: C Gabriel Moreno, LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., CF Kyle Lewis, RHP Scott McGough, LHP Andrew Chafin, 3B Evan Longoria; OUT: LF Daulton Varsho

Most of the exciting new faces on the Diamondbacks aren’t listed above; they’re homegrown youngsters set to open their first full season with the club. LF Corbin Carroll has already been locked up for the long haul and appears primed to be an exciting presence at the top of the lineup. Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy join him in a very youthful outfield – McCarthy is the oldest at 25. My take is that Carroll is the clear pick of the litter, while the others’ batted ball profiles don’t guarantee long-term success.

Moving Varsho to Toronto was a big gamble, but I believe a worthwhile one. Moreno has big-time all-around upside behind the dish, and Gurriel offers comparable bat upside to Varsho and will rotate with the three younger options in the outfield. Ketel Marte and Christian Walker are in their prime in the lineup, and Zac Gallen is peaking in the rotation – the trick is to keep them all at that level while the wave of kids continues to roll in.

Five-tool SS Jordan Lawlar’s bat is ahead of his glove, but he should move quickly. 3B Deyvison De Los Santos has prodigious power potential, though his defense needs polish. Righty Brandon Pfaadt and lefty Blake Walston should press for rotation spots soon, with Pfaadt the more well-rounded of the two, and Walston possessing an arguably higher upside.

5. Colorado Rockies – “Tru” Talent Record = 64-98 – Offensive Rating = 93.7 (20th), Pitching Rating = 115.6 (28th), Defensive Rating = 100.4 (20th); IN: LHP Brent Suter, RHP Pierce Johnson, LF Jurickson Profar; OUT: RHP Carlos Estevez, LF Connor Joe

Just can’t figure this bunch out. One would think it would be simple to assemble a productive offense at mile-high altitude, but this has seemingly become an insurmountable task for the Rockies. And after doing the hard part and assembling an acceptable starting rotation a few years back, it plateaued at that level and has begun to regress. This club does not appear to have any short or long-term plan to eventually contend in the NL West.

Case in point – an unfortunate injury occurred to incumbent 2B Brendan Rodgers, one of their only talented youthful regulars, and instead of giving kids Nolan Jones or Elehuris Montero the first opportunity to replace him, it appears to be Mike Moustakas who will play 3B, with the solid Ryan McMahon sliding over to 2B. Typical Rockies.

They will be handing the keys to shortstop to 21-year-old Ezequiel Tovar, a solid gloveman with some emerging pop in his bat. His plate discipline leaves a bit to be desired, and therefore he has a Neifi Perez-esque floor. Younger prospects Adael Amador and Benny Montgomery could contend for starting jobs down the road, Amador is a glove-first middle infielder who should develop a playable bat, and Montgomery is a raw athletic CF who can fly and has solid raw power, though his bat could be a project. Mound pickings are pretty slim – keep an eye on big righty McCade Brown, who has big stuff but needs to better repeat his delivery and throw more strikes.