Dodger Starters Hold 3 Of Top 4 Spots In NL Contact Manager Of Year Race

Those of you who routinely read my work in this space know that the metrics I utilize in my evaluation of both position players and pitchers are batted ball-based. For pitchers, I take the exit speed and launch angle of all batted balls allowed, apply the league average production yielded within each exit speed/launch angle “bucket” to each pitcher’s actual individual batted ball mix, and scale it to a league average of 100 to approximate each pitcher’s contact management performance. At the end of the season, the ERA qualifier with the lowest resulting Adjusted Contact Score is the league’s Contact Manager of the Year.

There typically have been a couple distinct types of top contact managers. The first, most exciting type is the great all-around pitcher who also misses tons of bats and minimizes walks. These guys have been more prevalent in the National League – Jacob deGrom, Corbin Burnes and Zack Wheeler have all been NL Contact Managers of the Year in recent seasons.

The AL has more often seen the other type of contact manager – the relatively ordinary bat-misser who has a go-to pop up or grounder tendency that he needs to merely compete, and occasionally thrive. Late-career C.C. Sabathia, Dallas Keuchel, Andrew Cashner and Marco Estrada all fit that description. The best all-around pitchers among recent AL Contact Managers of the Year have been Marcus Stroman in 2019 and Lance McCullers Jr. in 2021. Just last week, we took a look at the AL field, currently led by Astro lefty Framber Valdez. Today, it’s the NL’s turn.

THE CONTENDERS

The NL field is very tightly bunched behind the leader. How bunched? The current leader has an Adjusted Contact Score of 72, while the 2nd through 7th place holders have Adjusted Contact Scores between 77 and 83. Mets’ righty Chris Bassitt currently sits 7th. In what you will see is a common theme, Bassitt’s best trait is an ability to limit contact authority across all batted ball types. This is most noticeable on line drives – both his 82 Adjusted Line Drive Contact Score and 87.3 mph average liner authority allowed are easily best among qualifying NL starters. He’s been hot of late, and his arrow is pointed up. The Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara (82 Adjusted Contact Score) has dropped to 6th in this race. He induces tons of ground balls, but they’ve actually been hit harder than league average. In fact, his fly balls and liners have also been hit slightly harder than league average. His innings bulk and grounder frequency are the root of his exceptional success, but he does appear to be tiring a bit and doesn’t shine as brightly on a purely qualitative basis.

The Diamondbacks’ Merrill Kelly (81 Adjusted Contact Score) has had an under-the-radar strong season. He lives right on the edge from a batted ball perspective, but with a less lively baseball, he has fallen just on the good side of that edge. All of his batted ball type frequencies are right around league average, and his authority allowed is a bit better than average across all batted ball types. About 40% of the fly balls he’s allowed have been hit between 90-100 mph – and this year, those don’t result in much damage. And now, in 4th place the parade of Dodger starters begins. Julio Urias (79 Adjusted Contact Score) hasn’t won a Contact Manager of the Year award yet, but he usually is in the mix. He’s the biggest pop up generator (6.1%) in the NL this season, and his 74 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is also a major strength. Along with Bassitt, Urias is the only NL qualifier with a sub-90 mph average line drive authority allowed mark (89.8).

Like Urias, the Braves’ Max Fried (78 Adjusted Contact Score) is going to win a Contact Manager of the Year award someday, and it might just be in 2022. He’s a big-time grounder generator, and unlike Alcantara, he does a solid job of muting grounder authority as well. He also has the lowest average fly ball authority allowed (86.4 mph) of this group of contenders, though he’s yielded over twice as many 65-70 mph bloops than any of them. Our second Dodger is Mr. 15-1, Tony Gonsolin (77 Adjusted Contact Score). If these pitchers were being ordered by actual results, or by Unadjusted Contact Score, Gonsolin would be a runaway leader at 56. He’s been quite fortunate across all batted ball types, particularly liners (74 Unadjusted vs. 103 Adjusted Line Drive Contact Score) and grounders (43 vs. 100). On the other hand, his 62 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is best among this group. Fully 44% of the fly balls that he’s allowed fall into the 85-95 mph dead zone, way above the MLB average of just under 30%.

THE LEADER

The Dodgers’ Tyler Anderson (72 Adjusted Contact Score) might finally break the streak of one-year contracts that he’s signed annually since 2020. Yup, that’s right – Anderson was non-tendered after his last two arbitration-eligible seasons in which he pitched for three different non-contending clubs before signing a one-year deal with the game’s very best team and experiencing this breakthrough.

The lefty has always been a big pop-up generator who has relied on his changeup to sharply reduce grounder authority. The flip side of guys like this is vulnerability to the longball. And he has licked that this time around. Coming into 2022, he’d allowed just over a homer per six innings for his career – this year, he’s allowed just 10 in 135 1/3 innings. He’s had such success for a couple of reasons, one totally based on luck, and the other at least partly within his control. The new, less lively baseball has clearly helped pitchers like Anderson and Merrill Kelly – they live on the edge, and the edge has been moved. That said, nearly 30% of the fly balls allowed by Anderson have been hit between 95-100 mph, compared to an MLB average under 19%. While still yielding some damage, they’re still more pitcher-friendly than the average fly ball. Anderson’s 63 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score is just a shade behind Gonsolin’s 62 mark among this group.

Beyond this group, the NL Cy Young field, assumed by many to be led by Alcantara by a wide margin, also includes the Phillies’ Aaron Nola (my midseason Cy pick) and Brewers’ Corbin Burnes. Ultimately, the Dodgers’ Big Three might not prevail in either race, but the sum of their efforts is a big reason for this Dodger club’s historic excellence.