As 2023 is coming to an end, it is time to take a look at 2024. Strategists at Rabobank sketch their baseline scenario for the next year.
An eventful year
We expect 2024 to kick off with budget battles and the threat of a two-step government shutdown. We expect the rise in unemployment to become more pronounced and culminate in a recession in the first half of the year. This should convince the FOMC to pivot from an aggressive hiking cycle to a cautious cutting cycle by the middle of the year.
In November, the Americans will vote for the next President, the House of Representatives and about a third of the Senate. At the time of writing, it looks like we are heading for a major regime shift in the United States that would have major implications for the rest of the world.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-disinflation-higher-unemployment-and-lower-rates-in-2024-rabobank-202312221518