Did The New York Knicks Sign Mitchell Robinson To A Fair Deal?

The buzz after Mitchell Robinson signed with the New York Knicks was that the “Charlie Ward Curse” had been broken and that the team had finally signed a player to a contract after their rookie deal. It’s hard not to pull an “Impractical Jokers” level “Well…” at the technicality in him not being a 1st round pick, but for all intents and purposes it shows that the Knicks were finally able to retain a rookie that they drafted.

The question now becomes whether it is an overpay or not. The 24-year-old made great strides last year, but was it enough to warrant that large of a contract?

The Details

Robinson’s deal is for four years and is for a total of $60 million.

1st Year:

$17,045, 454

2nd Year:

$15,681,818

3rd Year:

$14,318,182

4th Year:

$12,954,546

The descending deal is completely guaranteed for Robinson over the four years. He’ll be eligible to be traded on January 13, 2023.

Worth It

The descending deal makes it that much more palatable for the Knicks. Choosing to order it in this manner has many benefits, one of which allows it to be seen as a friendlier deal in a trade. The other is that it gives the Knicks the potential to have more financial flexibility moving forward when they may have a greater need for utilizing the space. For instance, they re-signed Robinson with the ability to go over the cap. That was a no harm, no foul kind of deal. In future years, they now will have him as part of the salary cap and minimizing that financial impact could allow the Knicks more space to bring in or retain valuable players.

Statistically Robinson has a fair case to make that he is worth the contract. He is going to be between the ages of 24 and 27 while on this contract (he’ll technically be 28 at the very end of the deal) and that is exactly the age range you want to capture while doling out a four year deal. He has shown growth and maturity about his craft— working on building up stamina throughout the season after concentrating on bulking up the year prior. Tom Thibodeau has grown more impressed by Robinson by the year and seems to believe that he is an integral piece to the team being successful defensively.

He is the best offensive rebounder in the league. That isn’t hyperbole. Robinson is an absolute monster at gobbling up boards— taking up space underneath the basket and using his mix of length and strength to gain proper positioning while gathering in misses that ricochet off the rim into his big paws. He reeled in 15.1 percent of the team’s misses last season, which ranked in the 96th percentile for centers. He had the 2nd highest offensive rebounding per game total in the NBA, but brought in a far higher number of them while contested and had less opportunities than the leader (Steven Adams).

The high-flying center is still a huge threat when used in the pick and roll. He placed in the top-10 percentile in efficiency for roll men in the play type, even though he was only got one opportunity per game. That should quickly change with the addition of Jalen Brunson who can actually attack the rim and get the ball to Robinson when he forces an extra defender to help when he makes it to the paint.

Defensively he is a menace at the rim and dissuades ball handlers from shooting near the basket. Only 3.7 attempts at the rim were made against Robinson while he was on the court and he kept opponents at a pretty menial conversion rate (53.6%). He has worked on his foul rate over the past couple of years while still posting an elite 3.7 block percentage, which is one of the tops in the league.

That defensive acumen is integral to what Thibs wants to do on defense, and it is because of how the coach views him that he’s back on such a lucrative offer.

Overpay

Centers are a position that you don’t necessarily have to pay a premium for, especially when you use them the way the Knicks do. Offensively, there seems to be very little expectations for what they need to do other than crashing the glass and setting crisp screens. Defensively, they need to anchor the paint, but that skillset can be found in a multitude of different players. For example, the player the Knicks just signed to a two year, $16 million contract.

Isaiah Hartenstein offers the Knicks the same rim protection as Robinson (he actually graded out as the best player in the league in the statistic) and offers more offensive versatility with his passing out of the high post. He isn’t nearly the same offensive rebounder, but he provides an ability that is valuable at the position for half of the cost of Robinson. Toss in Jericho Sims and the position seems to be capably handled.

Robinson is currently being paid the 12th highest salary for centers this season, which is a bit misleading considering that the contract will decrease over the course of the four years. Still, pegging Robinson as the 12th best center and paying him that much when the market seemed rather bearish is a pretty bold position to take. It’s just even more surprising when you consider that there was very little competition to bring in Robinson and that the Knicks were ultimately negotiating against themselves.

The Knicks got into trouble last season when they thought the contracts that they offered players were going to be tradeable. A center having a full four years on his deal may not be the best business decision, unless he is able to provide consistent production which Robinson has failed to do throughout his career. Last year steps were taken in the right direction, but enough questions remain that this isn’t a slam dunk move.

The Knicks better hope that things work out because there are only so many 2nd round picks that they can ship out to move unwanted salary.