Did Jacob deGrom Deserve His Contact?

Now that the free agency period has mostly come to a close, it’s easy to forget the first big piece to move, which was Jacob deGrom to the Rangers.

And while at the time the payday was shocking, judging off the rest of contracts given out this year, there’s an argument to be made that deGrom set the market higher than anticipated due to it being the initial move.

But, now with all things considered, was this deal worth it for Texas?

After Jacob deGrom signed his 5-year, $185 million dollar contract with the Texas Rangers, he instantly jumps into a tie for the 6th-highest pitching contract in the MLB at a $30 million dollar A-A-V.

But, was this contract worth it for the Rangers? To start, let’s look at what deGrom has already done to earn this deal.

The 2-Time Cy Young winner is widely regarded as the best pitcher in the game when he can stay on the field, as he is 1 of 31 pitchers all-time with a career ERA below 2.55 in over 200 career starts.

But, since ERA fluctuates over the years, if we change the qualifications to over 150 ERA+, the list shrinks to just 3 named: Clayton Kershaw, deGrom, and Pedro Martinez.

And even still, these three players pitched in different eras, so how do they stack up after inflating their stats to the same league average?

Kershaw: 2,577.2 IP | 2.54 ERA | 161 ERA+

deGrom: 1,366 IP | 2.49 ERA | 166 ERA+

Martinez: 2,750.2 IP | 2.90 ERA | 151 ERA+

Now, this comparison does come with a caveat, as both Kershaw and Martinez have pitched twice as many innings as deGrom, but for a player with his workload so far, he has been one of the best pitchers the game has ever seen.

Even outside of his microscopic career era in a balanced era, deGrom would also have a WHIP of .993, a 2.36 FIP, and still over 1,400 strikeouts to 307 walks, despite losing 9.9% of his career K’s.

But the issue with deGrom is not his talent level, it’s his ability to make his starts.

The 5-year deal will take him into his age 39 season, and in the last 2 seasons deGrom has combined for 26 starts and 156.1 innings pitched.

Despite frequent stints on the IL of late, his stuff seems to look even better every time he returns to the rubber.

In 2022, his average fastball velocity was 99 mph, with 93 mph and 92 mph on his slider and changeup, while still staying in the 97th percentile in spin rate (according to baseball savant).

So depending on health, deGrom should produce similar numbers on 2023 due to the lack of mileage on his arm, but is $30 million a year worth it for Texas if it still means under 15 starts, or 9.3% of the regular season?

It’s a big ‘if’, which will go a long way in determining the competitiveness of the Rangers this year. In fact, you could make the argument that deGrom’s impact could make the biggest difference of any free agent signed this year towards their respective club.