Detroit Lions Look Set To Bet On T.J. Hockenson’s Future Production

T.J. Hockenson has yet to deliver elite tight end production during his three seasons in the NFL but the Detroit Lions appear to be ready to bank on him imminently making such a leap.

ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler this week reported the Lions are expected to prioritize a contract extension for Hockenson before the start of the season. Having previously failed to come to an agreement with the 2019 first-round pick, the Lions picked up his fifth-year option in April.

He is due to earn $9.4 million under that option in 2023 after a 2022 season in which he will be paid $6.5 million.

Hockenson has 1,673 receiving yards in his NFL career, his best year coming in 2020— the only season that has seen him play every game—when he finished with 723 yards and six touchdowns.

While his raw numbers may not be overly impressive, Hockenson has been a consistent scoring threat—scoring 10 touchdowns in his last two seasons—and has produced efficiency for the Lions.

Indeed, the 2021 season saw Hockenson finish 11th among qualifying tight ends in Football Outsiders DYAR, which measures total value.

Should the Lions find long-term agreement with Hockenson, they will not be committing to him for his previous performance, they will be extending him because of what they think he can produce in the coming years.

Hockenson was seen as the best all-round tight end in the 2019 draft having excelled as both a blocker and a receiver in college at Iowa. That he was one of the more efficient tight ends in the NFL last season while playing for an offense that was 24th in Expected Points Added per play on dropbacks—according to rbsdm.com—is testament to his talent.

Following a strong offseason for Detroit, Hockenson should be in a much better position to realize his potential. The Lions added a pair of deep threats in D.J. Chark and first-round draft pick Jameson Williams—though the latter may not be ready for Week 1—this offseason and their ability to stretch defenses vertically may well open the underneath areas for Hockenson to exploit more consistently.

Yet Hockenson’s ability to reach his NFL ceiling with the Lions is likely reliant on Detroit finding a quarterback of the future. While Jared Goff has to this point been an acceptable stopgap for the Lions after transitioning from the Matthew Stafford era and committing to a rebuild, he was not acquired with any thought of him being the long-term answer under center.

With two first-round picks in 2023, however, the Lions should have the opportunity to land a quarterback of the future in the draft. If Detroit reaches an agreement on an extension with Hockenson, it will be a show of faith in the former Hawkeye taking the next step and the Lions identifying the right quarterback to help him reach his ceiling.