Despite The Headlines, Plant-Based Meat Isn’t “Cooked”

Between the news and trending social media, you’d think that companies like Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat are done for. The recent dip in the market for alternative meats — a dip shared across various parts of the economy — is taken as a sign that the time has come to pack it up on plant-based meat. These foods represent “just another fad,” we’re told, which has over-promised and underdelivered in terms of taste and health benefits, and can never hope to supplant the rising consumption of animal meat. The reality is more complex — and less dire — than these dramatic narratives make it sound.

For one, the field of meat alternatives is diversifying, far beyond just the two biggest, most publicized companies in the space. The Plant Based Food Association’s retail sales data shows plant-based meat has grown by 74% over the last three years. The PBFA also reports that 60% of foodservice operators now consider plant-based meat a long-term trend, while four times as many food service operators plan to add more plant-based meat options to their menus this year rather than reduce them.

The overall trend for plant-based meats is one of increased adoption, even if the rate of adoption slows at certain points. It’s no secret that hype often builds around new products and technologies, setting distorted expectations for the short term. That doesn’t mean what these products or technologies offer isn’t important, and their true value is often proven out in the longer term. Anyone familiar with the cycles of new and transformative technologies is familiar with this process.

The Lifecycle of Hype

There’s a name for the arc of an innovation as it goes from bright origins to challenging adolescence, before ultimately reaching stable maturity. It’s called the Gartner hype cycle, and just as the cycle predicts, vegan alternative meats are now entering what’s called the “trough of disillusionment.” No, I’m not making that up.

Here’s how it works. A new technology or product makes a big splash with exciting promises. That excitement builds, and a surge of interest and investment drives the new innovation to its first market position, where it inevitably encounters the headwinds and harsh realities of the real world. While businesses figure out how to connect their new idea or product with consumers — especially difficult in already well-established industries — public and investor interest begins to flag, and into the trough it goes. But the thing about going into troughs is, you come back out of them, too. This is also predicted by the cycle. The companies and brands who make it through are the ones who define what comes next.

Fads come and go, but real innovations weather the storm. Popularity with consumers is just one of the factors. Renewable energy and electric cars are gaining ground because these technologies are necessary to help ensure a livable planet, a fact which increasingly influences consumers, policymakers, and ultimately, the industry. Meat is no different, and developing meatless meats is just as crucial to the future of the planet as weaning ourselves off fossil fuels.

The harms and hazards posed by factory farming and overconsumption of factory-farmed meat have been well documented. Animal agriculture is the single biggest user of land, water, and other resources, producing immense methane emissions and other forms of pollution, and opening potential vectors for disease, to say nothing of the mistreatment of animals to feed the growing population by 2050. In short, the status quo is unsustainable over the long term, so finding and embracing alternatives isn’t just a fad — it’s a necessity.

What can plant-based meat brands do? As always, investors, retailers, and consumers alike are looking for the next thing that will create and sustain excitement. Overcoming the current drag on meatless meat may come down to the specifics of the products on offer. Specifically, if they fail to meet the needs of the consumer in a few important dimensions like taste, ingredients and price.

People are rightly sensitive to the long, indecipherable ingredient labels on many popular meat alternatives, and the ‘uncanny valley’ effect of something that’s almost exactly like meat, but also just shy of perfect. The rise in cellular meat — created by guiding the growth of animal cells in lab conditions — offers promising potential. Cellular meats currently require an insane amount of energy, and create some mixed responses, not to mention they are very expensive and outside the reach of the everyday consumer at this time.

Many companies see the answer in something that has been gaining attention in and well beyond the category of alternative meats: mushroom mycelium. Not only does it grow in ways that naturally mimic meat tissues, offering a direct path to familiar whole cuts like bacon strips and chicken breast, but it is also nutritious, delicious, and — since nature does most of the work of producing it — requires little energy and affords clear, clean ingredient labels for the same cost as their traditional meat counterparts..

But mycelium is just one approach, and as the market activity around plant-based meats slows, here’s a prediction: we’ll see renewed activity in favor of alternatives that emphasize taste and nutrition. The next-generation plant-based offerings that will make it through the trough of disillusionment are solving the shortcomings of overhyped first-generation players. The lengthy, highly-processed ingredient lists, and questionable health claims will be a thing of the past — and new brands are finding product market fit thanks to new developments in agriculture and science.

“There really is no limit to the innovation possible in plant-based meat” says Rachel Dreskin, CEO of the Plant Based Foods Association. “Each time a novel ingredient is used, or a new technique is discovered, more ideas are sparked, allowing for continuous and exciting development in this category. With rising interest in foods that align with their values, U.S. consumers are seeking out plant-based meats–and companies are meeting the moment, leading to increased variety and continued industry growth.”

Alternative meats may be going through “the trough of disillusionment,” but it doesn’t change the 50-year-long trajectory we are on to change protein consumption, and production, on Spaceship Earth. In fact, it is typical of the innovation cycle for new technologies. If plant-based meats are going to have a long-term future in our food landscape, it will be a clean and trustworthy label, along with a delicious, satisfying taste and sustaining innovation that will turn plant-based mainstream.