Despite Injury To Jose Altuve, Houston Astros Remain AL West Favorite

Throughout March, I’ve been taking a look at the Opening Day true-talent rankings of the 30 MLB clubs on a division-by-division basis. While the rankings are based on actual 2022 batted-ball data, off-season player movement and potential impact of 2023 rookies will be addressed. We’ve already covered the AL East, NL East, AL Central and NL Central. Today, it’s the AL West.

1. Houston Astros – “Tru” Talent Record = 104-58 – Offensive Rating = 107.6 (8th), Pitching Rating = 83.7 (2nd), Defensive Rating = 96.3 (4th); IN: 1B Jose Abreu; OUT: RHP Justin Verlander, UT Aledmys Diaz, C Christian Vazquez, DH Trey Mancini

It was a pretty quiet offseason for the defending World Champions, with reigning AL Cy Young winner Verlander the primary loss and Abreu the primary addition. It remains to be seen whether the team’s overall approach to player evaluation and development will change under new GM Dana Brown.

The loss of Verlander is a big one, but the run prevention should remain strong, with Christian Javier likely taking on a larger role and young Hunter Brown being leaned upon to fill out the rotation. The guess here is that the pitching staff will remain at or very near the top of the MLB rankings.

The upgrade from Yuli Gurriel to Abreu lengthens the middle of the batting order and cannot be overstated. With 2B Jose Altuve out for awhile after thumb surgery for an injury suffered in the World Baseball Classic, and LF/DH Michael Brantley still working his way back from shoulder surgery, Abreu’s high-level consistency is needed more than ever.

The Astros’ minor league pipeline is beginning to run a bit dry. Brown could be its last premium graduate for a spell. No impact bats are on the horizon, and perhaps the most intriguing arms behind Brown are righties Jaime Melendez and Miguel Ullola. Melendez is a pitchability guy who performs beyond his stuff and Ullola has a big arm and is fleshing out the remainder of his arsenal.

2. Seattle Mariners – “Tru” Talent Record = 85-77 – Offensive Rating = 103.0 (11th), Pitching Rating = 96.8 (12th), Defensive Rating = 100.8 (21st); IN: RF Teoscar Hernandez, 2B Kolten Wong, DH AJ Pollock; OUT: RHP Erik Swanson, CF Kyle Lewis, LF Jesse Winker, UT Abraham Toro, RF Mitch Haniger, LHP Matthew Boyd, 2B Adam Frazier

There was a whole lot of rearranging of the mid-to-back end of the Mariners’ big league roster this offseason, but the long-term trajectory of the club remains pointed upward. Hernandez is a huge key to their offense in the short-term. Last year’s premium acquisition, the departed Winker, didn’t pan out, and that wasn’t the first time an imported big bat got small after arriving in the Pacific Northwest.

Julio Rodriguez is a budding superstar, and fallen megaprospect Jarred Kelenic has been beyond explosive this spring – if his breakthrough is real, this lineup is going to score some runs. As Kelenic could lengthen the Mariner lineup, righty George Kirby could do the same to their starting rotation. The righty dazzled at times in his rookie season, and will be relied upon from the get-go this time around. I’m very optimistic about Kirby, a little less so about Kelenic.

On the farm, C Harry Ford is the most interesting position player prospect. He’s athletic enough to play almost anywhere on the field, but still needs quite a bit of polish behind the plate. He won’t impact the big club in 2023. Ditto 1B Robert Perez Jr. and SS Axel Sanchez, two more exciting lower-level bats. Perez is a bat-only guy, and Sanchez is a high-ceiling defender with some emerging pop. Keep an eye on righty flamethrower Prelander Berroa, who was a spring training standout. He can run it up to 100 MPH with movement, and might even throw harder if he’s permanently shifted to the pen.

3. Los Angeles Angels – “Tru” Talent Record = 79-83 – Offensive Rating = 92.4 (24th), Pitching Rating = 98.3 (13th), Defensive Rating = 96.3 (3rd); IN: LHP Tyler Anderson, 3B Gio Urshela, RF Hunter Renfroe, RHP Carlos Estevez, 2B Brandon Drury; OUT: RHP Michael Lorenzen

The Angels have squandered the careers of Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani to this point due to the impotence of the middle and back ends of their big league roster. To that end, they’ve made a concerted effort to beef up their depth going into 2023. As things stand, perfectly solid MLB players like C Max Stassi, 3B Urshela and 2B Luis Rengifo would be on the bench on Opening Day, and that’s just fine. If/when Anthony Rendon breaks down again, the world won’t end this time.

Anderson is a huge under-the-radar free agent signing. He very quietly was the Dodgers’ most effective starter last season, and given the presence of Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw and Tony Gonsolin, that was no small feat. Reid Detmers has been lights out this spring and could take a major step forward.

The Angels’ farm system has been down for a while and is beginning to show signs of life. C Logan O’Hoppe, acquired from the Phillies for Brandon Marsh, is set to win the starting catcher job. That said, the future of the position could well be switch-hitter Edgar Quero, whose bat is ahead of his glove at this stage. SS Zach Neto has a little Bo Bichette in him, and could be banging on the big league door by the end of this season. Righty Chase Silseth got a taste of the majors last season, and can be expected to fare better this time around. He’s been a quality strikethrower at the upper minor league levels.

4. Texas Rangers – “Tru” Talent Record = 74-88 – Offensive Rating = 97.3 (18th), Pitching Rating = 106.4 (22nd), Defensive Rating = 99.9 (17th); IN: RHP Jacob deGrom, RHP Jake Odorizzi, LHP Andrew Heaney, RHP Nathan Eovaldi, LF Robbie Grossman; OUT: N/A

No, there were no notable departures from the 2022 Texas Rangers. They continued their big spending over the past two offseasons by guaranteeing five years and $185 million to deGrom, who has pitched 156 innings in the past two years combined. Add that to massive commitments to the double play combination of Corey Seager and Marcus Semien the previous winter, and you have a team that is behaving like a contender.

The team has quietly developed 1B Nathaniel Lowe and RF Adolis Garcia from non-elite prospects into quality middle of the order presences. If they continue their growth, this should be at least a league average offense. The club hopes that the additions of Eovaldi and Heaney behind deGrom will make the rotation the strength of the club. Eovaldi was a legitimate down-ballot Cy Young candidate as recently as 2021, and Heaney was quietly brilliant on a per-inning basis last season, posting a 110/19 K/BB in only 72 2/3 IP with the Dodgers. A healthy Jon Gray is another key factor in what could be a greatly improved Ranger rotation.

The farm graduates a key member onto the big league club, with 3B Josh Jung set to start and bat in the middle of the order. He struggled a bit in his MLB debut last season, but the power is real and tightened plate discipline could make him a fixture. CF Evan Carter and SS/2B Luisangel Acuna (younger brother of Ronald) both could crack the big league lineup before long. Carter is a well-rounded player who should stick in center, and Acuna is a speedster with big tools and a substantial upside. On the mound, keep an eye on Owen White, an oft-injured prospect who is finally healthy and has made big strides over the past calendar year.

5. Oakland Athletics – “Tru” Talent Record = 56-106 – Offensive Rating = 85.7 (29th), Pitching Rating = 109.1 (23rd), Defensive Rating = 108.0 (30th); IN: CF Esteury Ruiz, UT Aledmys Diaz, 3B Jace Peterson, RHP Trevor May, RHP Drew Rucinski, RHP Shintaro Fujinami, 1B Jesus Aguilar; OUT: C Sean Murphy, LHP A.J. Puk, LHP Cole Irvin

I hesitate to call what the A’s are doing a “tank” – it seems to be more of a science experiment, in advance of who knows, perhaps a move to Las Vegas. The Athletics seem to be evaluating players differently than other clubs, maybe in part because of the new on-field rules going into effect this year. The club seemed to value Ruiz, a speed player, much more than the industry, essentially giving up a star catcher in Murphy for a package co-fronted by him.

The rotation features a couple of overseas standouts in Fujinami and Rucinski, along with lefty Ken Waldichuk, obtained from the Yankees in the Frankie Montas deal at last year’s trade deadline.

One would think a team that has been selling off its biggest assets for years now would have a deep farm, but the A’s really don’t. 1B/3B Jordan Diaz is a bat-first prospect who should get a chance at the MLB level sometime this season. Former first rounder Tyler Soderstrom might be diverted from C to 1B by the emergence of starter Shea Langeliers, but his power bat should find its way into the lineup. The A’s have pitching prospect quantity, but the quality is arguable. Waldichuk will get his chance early, and lefty Kyle Muller could be right behind. He also came over in the Murphy deal, and throws quite hard for a southpaw. He’s already 25 and needs to get moving.