FILE – San Diego Padres starting pitcher Dylan Cease celebrates after the third out during the third inning of a baseball game against the Milwaukee Brewers, Sept. 24, 2025, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull, File)
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Many eyebrows were raised when the Toronto Blue Jays made RHP Dylan Cease the first major domino to fall in the 2025-26 MLB free agent market, inking him to a 7-year, $210 million contract. After all, he just completed an 8-12, 4.55, season with the Padres.
While I’m skeptical about the prospects of most long-term, big-dollar free agent contracts, especially those extended to starting pitchers, I’m kind of liking this one. Sure, major injury could rear its ugly head at any time and render it a disaster, but Cease checks a lot of positive boxes for me when it comes to defining a pitcher as a worthwhile target.
YOUTH
It gets a little scary when you guarantee major years to pitchers well into their thirties. Sure, seven years is not insignificant, but Cease will turn 30 later this month. There is plenty of precedent for power arms pitching well deep into their thirties.
DURABILITY
Pitching the requisite 162 innings to qualify for the ERA title isn’t nearly as common as it used to be. In 2025, only 52 pitchers (including two who split the season between the AL and NL) reached that mark. That total had been plummeting for almost a generation, and has actually begun to creep upward very recently.
Cease has reached that mark for the last five seasons consecutively. What’s the big deal, you say? There are only two MLB starters – Cease and his new Blue Jay teammate Kevin Gausman – who can make that claim. And Gausman’s multi-year deal expires after next season – you can basically look at this signing as bringing in Gausman’s replacement a year early. While the Jays might bring the big righty back on a new deal, it certainly won’t be another seven-year pact, or likely anything close to it.
QUALITY
This is the big one, and possibility the facet most open for debate. This is no Jeff Suppan-like innings eater, no matter what the surface level 2025 numbers might seem to tell you.
Many will point to his subpar record and ERA from this season and say he simply isn’t very good. Then they’ll point to his generally pitcher-friendly home park (the Padres’ Petco Park) and say he’s even worse than that.
You’ve got to keep in mind the sheer volume of random chance that surrounds each and every player’s performance in every single season. That’s why my batted ball-based statistics exist. They peel away all of the context surrounding player performance to get a strong handle on a player’s true talent level.
Cease was incredibly unlucky on both fly balls (129 Unadjusted vs. 89 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score) and grounders (163 vs. 95) this season. No qualifying NL starter was as unfortunate on either batted ball type. For greater clarity, hitters batted .377 AVG-.928 SLG on fly balls against Cease, but “should have” hit .308 AVG-.779 SLG. And they hit .265 AVG-.301 SLG on grounders, but “should have” hit .206 AVG-.225 SLG. Overall he had a 123 Unadjusted (.354 AVG-.592 SLG) versus a 98 Adjusted Contact Score (.321 AVG-.518 SLG). His 29.8% K rate was the highest of any NL ERA qualifier – a bat-misser like that with average range contact management skills is a stud, and worthy of a hefty free agent investment that kicks in with his age 30 season. Once adjusted for context, Cease’s numbers were good enough to place him 8th on my hypothetical 2025 Cy Young ballot.
CONSISTENCY?
This is where many would say, you’re kidding right?
His ERA- has been all over the place over the last four seasons, from 56 to 106 to 88 to 112. But when you adjust for context like FIP- and my “Tru”- does, his numbers are smoothed out significantly. His “Tru”- has gone from 70 to 94 to 81 to 80 over that span, while his FIP- has bounced around in an even tighter range, from 75 to 83 to 77 to 87. Dylan Cease is an above average pitcher who has been more consistent than advertised, and is still quite young. He is a very worthy target of the Blue Jays’ affection.
The Toronto Blue Jays may have just suffered the most heartbreaking World Series loss in the sport’s history. Change any one of a score of minor moments from Games 6 and 7 (or go back to Game 3 while you’re at it) and they win the hardware. They could have been excused if that caused them to be slow out of the blocks in the postseason. Instead, they’re right back at it, looking to finish what they started next time around. Kudos to them for landing the first body blow of the offseason.