Topline
Democratic candidates are pouring their own campaign cash into House races—outspending the other party by more than twofold—but GOP issue groups are making up for the lag in this historically expensive election cycle, new data shows.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin greets President Joe Biden upon arrival at Capital Region International Airport … [+]
Key Facts
Vying to maintain control of the House, Democratic candidates have spent or reserved more than $167 million on ads this election cycle, more than doubling Republican candidates’ $72 million, according to data reported Wednesday by the political ad tracking firm AdImpact Politics.
Democratic issue groups and candidates together are on track to spend a total of $409 million before Election Day, $57 million more than Republican groups and candidates, adding up to $761 million in ad spending for candidates from both parties and their supporters.
Both parties are scheduled to spend nearly half of those totals in the final stretch before Election Day—$185 million for Democrats and $168 million on the Republican side over the next four weeks.
The most expensive House races so far this year are two battleground races in Michigan and Nevada where a pair of incumbent Democrats, Reps. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) and Susie Lee (Nev.), are in nail-biter competitions to hang on to their seats—both parties have spent a combined $27 million on ads for each seat, with Democrats spending about $2.5 million more in both races.
On both sides of the aisle, issue groups like the Republican-aligned One Nation and the Democrat-aligned NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC are spending more money to assist candidates than their own campaigns, but Republican political action committees have spent or reserved about $34 million more on ads this cycle for a total of $268 million, according to AdImpact.
Big Number
$1.3 billion. That’s the total spent or reserved on advertisements in all races—including congressional and gubernatorial contests—for both parties this month, putting October on track to break September’s record as the fourth most expensive month for political ads in history, according to AdImpact.
Key Background
Higher spending on the Democratic side isn’t entirely surprising, considering they simply have more members in the lower chamber, with a slim 222-213 majority. Election forecasters think Democrats will likely lose control of the House, which is typical for the president’s party in a midterm election cycle, especially since President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have slid sharply over the past several months and voters view the economy and inflation as top concerns. However, the reversal of Roe v. Wade has slightly improved Democrats’ outlook, according to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. In the Senate, which is currently evenly split between both parties, Democrats are slightly favored to maintain its majority.
Tangent
At least 59 of the country’s billionaires have made nearly $100 million in donations to two super-PACs battling to win the House, with the majority of that money—$79 million—going to the GOP’s war machine, the Congressional Leadership Fund. The top billionaire donors include crypto exchange founder Sam Bankman-Fried on the Democratic side ($6 million in donations) and hedge fund investor Ken Griffin on behalf of Republicans ($18.5 million). Because super-PACs are prohibited from coordinating directly with candidates according to federal election rules, the groups place their own ad buys to boost their preferred candidates.
Further Reading
Meet The Billionaires Funding The Battle For Control Of The House Of Representatives (Forbes)
With midterms weeks away, candidates and their backers are spending more ad dollars (NPR)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2022/10/12/democrats-are-outspending-republicans-2-1-to-hold-onto-house/