Topline
This year’s gubernatorial election in reliably red Mississippi is shaping up to be the most competitive in decades, according to recent (if small) polls, with a distant relative of rock and roll legend Elvis Presley leading the Democratic charge to unseat Republican Gov. Tate Reeves, who has been plagued by a welfare fraud scandal.
Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves (R) delivers a televised address on June 30, 2020 in Jackson, … [+]
Key Facts
A survey released Monday from Tulchin Research found Democratic state Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley—Elvis’ third cousin— leading Reeves 47%-43%, with 10% undecided.
Tulchin Research is a relatively little-known firm, but the findings came just over a month after a poll from Siena College—widely regarded as one of the nation’s highest-quality political pollsters—also found Reeves in trouble, leading by just four points—43%-39%—within that survey’s margin of error.
Reeves is reeling with a 54% unfavorable rating in the latest poll, after he became embroiled in a welfare scandal that appeared to funnel millions of dollars away from needy families in the state toward pet projects, headlined by former NFL star Brett Favre’s push to build a new volleyball facility at the University of Southern Mississippi.
What To Watch For
Mississippi’s primaries are August 8, with both Presley and Reeves overwhelmingly favored to win the nominations. The general election is November 7.
Key Background
Presley—a moderate Democrat—announced his candidacy on January 12, calling Reeves in his campaign launch video “a man with zero conviction and maximum corruption.” Presley’s regional service representing the northern chunk of the state on the Public Service Commission makes him a rare Democrat serving above the local level in Mississippi, which has not elected a Democratic governor since 1999 and has not gone blue in a presidential election since 1976. But Reeves has already proven to be a far weaker candidate than most other Republicans running statewide. He defeated Democrat Jim Hood to win the governorship in 2019 by only around five percentage points—even after President Donald Trump carried Mississippi by more than 17 points in 2016 before winning it again by over 16 points in 2020.
Surprising Fact
Republicans are already guaranteed to win majorities in both the Mississippi House and Senate this year, since not enough Democratic challengers signed up by the February 1 filing deadline to appear on the ballot.
What To Watch For
The Mississippi race is one of three off-year gubernatorial elections in red states, which could all be competitive. In Kentucky, Gov. Andy Beshear (D) is seeking reelection, while Republicans are hoping to recapture the governor’s mansion in Louisiana for the first time in nearly a decade since Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) is term-limited.
Contra
Vermont—which President Joe Biden won by a bigger margin than any other state—is served by Gov. Phil Scott (R). Scott consistently ranks as one of the nation’s most popular governors.
Further Reading
Brett Favre Scandal: Alleged $8 Million Welfare Scam, Explained (Forbes)
Texts: Gov. Reeves Talked To Brett Favre About Using State Funds For Volleyball Facilities (Mississippi Free Press)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/nicholasreimann/2023/02/13/democrat-brandon-presley-cousin-of-elvis-close-to-mississippis-republican-governor-in-recent-polls/