Deflating The EMP Danger To America’s Power Grids

What is the exact intended purpose of China’s intelligence collection balloons: electronic warfare or reconnaissance? Neither of these should be dismissed, but there was another, nefarious goal as well: Electro-Magnetic Pulses (EMPs) threatened US grid security.

The possibility of such an attack is growing as EMP technology is evolving. The Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from EMP Attacks, alongside military officials, warned years ago of the possibility of balloon-based EMP attacks. Given that our grid infrastructure is weak, aging, and lacks resilience, EMP attacks could become the choice weapons of America’s enemies, and not just China.

An EMP produces a powerful wave of energy that causes dramatic voltage surges in electric systems. As a result, it can shut down vast areas of electric grids, systems, and devices while drastically overheating, degrading, or destroying their components. Unlike cyberattacks which target computer systems of power grids, EMPs act at the physical level, impacting a wider range of systems, such as car engines, cell phone transmitters, transformers, and backup power generator systems.

The impact of an EMP attack in the US would be catastrophic. Experts argue that the US is incredibly ill-prepared for such an event, with former CIA director James Woolsey calling it “one of the greatest national vulnerabilities.” Beyond the impact on critical business and financial operations, access to necessities such as water and medicine could also be severely limited.

The recovery process for most vital systems would take weeks, while full recovery would require years of repair, replacements, and cost trillions of dollars. The lack of access to electricity shouldn’t be dismissed as a mere inconvenience; it directly impacts people’s lives. The 2018 Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse Attack estimated that over the course of a year following an EMP attack, millions of excess deaths could result with the upper bounds of a successful EMP attack being in the 90% casualty range.

With EMP warfare, the advantage lies with the first striker as the attack has a crippling effect on vital systems of the target country with limited second-strike capacity. While China and Russia can execute such an attack via intercontinental ballistic missiles armed with high-altitude nuclear explosive warheads geared to radiation, not heat or explosion, terrorist organizations could also orchestrate a small non-nuclear EMP attack if a state sponsor provides them access to an appropriate system.

Procurement and manufacturing of such devices have become relatively easy given access to the internet and consumer-grade equipment. America’s poor record in Iraq and Afghanistan against sustained insurgencies could embolden non-state actors to also pursue such attacks.

US adversaries are also developing strategies for using their existing nuclear capabilities for EMP purposes and developing advanced non-nuclear EMP weapons such as the High-Powered Microwave. A 2020 report by EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security has found that China’s EMP development and deployment strategies are making rapid advancements. The report also finds that the use of cyberwarfare and EMP would be the People’s Liberation Army’s central strategy against the US and that it could be used to conduct a first-strike surprise attack. A pulse attack could be used on a smaller scale to disable specific military targets such as ballistic missile bases and aircraft carriers. It could also be used to conduct a sweeping attack on vast elements of military and civilian infrastructure to cripple rapid response and recovery.

There is also a chance for a naturally occurring pulse because of a gamma-ray burst or solar coronal mass ejection which could have just as devastating consequences. The chances of a powerful solar pulse hitting Earth are estimated approximately 12% within the next 10 years, threatening US infrastructure even during peacetime.

Despite these warnings and the increasing danger, the US Government’s response to tackling EMP threats has been lackluster. The proposed GRID Act of 2010 and SHIELD Act of 2013, which aimed to address some of these concerns, failed to gain enough traction. Grid hardening is an expensive process involving the grounding of power lines and constructing shielding containers and mechanisms. Additionally, there is a public awareness and political will deficit to solving this important issue.

Despite this, there has been some progress. In 2019, the Trump Administration passed the Coordinating National Resilience to Electromagnetic Pulses executive order meant to facilitate research on EMP vulnerabilities, improve response, and develop guidance on adequate protection strategies. The August 2022 DHS
DHS
Electromagnetic Pulse Shielding Mitigations report provides a brief assessment of EMP vulnerabilities, and some best practices and protective technologies.

Fortunately, EMP mitigation technologies are becoming more accessible and affordable and the danger is thoroughly understood. For example, CenterPoint along with Siemens has developed grid hardening solutions at 25% of the cost which could be retrofitted into the existing infrastructure.

The Biden administration’s recent $13 billion investment in the US energy grid is a step in the right direction to improve the reliability and capacity of the grid as well as improving security systems against cyber-attacks. Unfortunately, the program fails to mention EMP-mitigation technologies.

As the US becomes increasingly reliant on green technology and ever sprawling and more computerized and sophisticated power grids, we become more and more vulnerable to EMP attacks. As our adversaries look towards new forms of warfare, it is important that our leaders don’t ignore this critical vulnerability.

A widespread investment in grid-hardening technology, grounding of power and transmission lines, and the protection of critical grid systems are imperative to mitigate our adversaries’ first-strike advantage and protect the vital infrastructure which makes modern life possible. And if all else fails, our adversaries should have no doubt: a significant EMP attack would trigger a full-scale overwhelming massive retaliation nuclear strike on their vital and most valuable targets.