Deaths Outpaced Births In A Record 73% Of U.S. Counties In 2021 As Covid Raged

Topline

In 2021, deaths exceeded births in 55.5% of metro areas and in a record 73% of counties, with the coronavirus pandemic exacerbating long-running trends of aging populations and falling fertility rates that have left the U.S. reliant on immigration to maintain population levels.

James Harvey tends tends the inventory of pre-sold caskets at a New York City funeral home.

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Key Facts

“Natural decreases”—when deaths exceed births—were reported in every county in Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire and Rhode Island, which were among the 11 most elderly states by median age according to the 2019 Census.

Some counties also lost population to migration within the U.S., including 65.7% of counties in Illinois, 71.9% of counties in Louisiana and 80% of counties in Alaska, where a high cost of living and an unemployment rate up to 47% over the national average has driven a years-long struggle to retain residents.

Los Angeles County and New York County (aka Manhattan) reported the highest domestic migration losses—losing 179,757 residents and 113,642 residents, respectively—as Americans moved from larger and more populated counties to smaller and less populated ones amid the pandemic, a reversal of typical patterns that led 65.6% of counties to register net positive domestic migration for the year, bureau officials said.

Micropolitan areas—urban centers with between 10,000 and 50,000 residents—grew 0.2% in 2021, while metropolitan areas grew just 0.1%, an inversion of historical trends.

Though immigration to the U.S. declined dramatically in 2021, due in part to Covid-related travel restrictions and interruptions of visa services, 71% of counties still reported net positive international migration, enough to fuel net overall population increases in 58% of counties.

In 2019, 45.5% of counties reported natural decreases, compared to 55.5% in 2020 and 73% in 2021.

A tract of residential homes in Santa Rosa, California.

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Key Background

Birth rates in the U.S. have plunged since the 2000s, with the total fertility rate—the average number of children a woman is projected to have during her lifetime—reaching a low of 1.64 in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The total fertility rate has usually been below the level needed to sustain population levels—2.1 children per woman—since 1971, and has consistently fallen below that level since 2007, the CDC reported. Low fertility rates not only reduce overall population size, but reduce the number of young people compared to the number of old people, threatening to burden society with a larger population in need of support. The number of Americans age 65 and older grew 34.2% during the 2010s to 54.1 million, 16% of the population, up from 13%. The demographic effects of low fertility have been partially offset by the arrival of younger international immigrants. However, international immigration has fallen steadily since the mid-2010s, from a net positive 1.05 million immigrants in 2015-16 to a net positive 247,000 in 2020-21, according to the Census Bureau. As immigrants were turned away by Covid-related border closures and by Trump Administration restrictions, some communities that had fueled rapid growth with a supply of immigrant labor found their economic development threatened, the New York Times reported.

Big Number

9.83 million. That’s how many people live in Los Angeles County, according to the Census Bureau, making it the most populous U.S. county despite a net loss of 159,621 residents in 2021.

Surprising Fact

Five of the 10 top counties with the biggest population gains were in Texas: Collin, Denton, Fort Bend, Montgomery and Williamson Counties gained a combined 145,663 residents, the Census Bureau reported.

Tangent

The U.S. contains 3,143 counties, 384 metropolitan statistical areas and 543 micropolitan statistical areas.