David Bakhtiari’s Time With The Green Bay Packers Could Be Nearing The End

It was Nov. 15, 2020, and everybody at 1265 Lombardi Ave. was on cloud nine.

The Green Bay Packers had just agreed to a four-year, $105.5 million contract with prized left tackle David Bakhtiari.

The deal made Bakhtiari the highest-paid offensive lineman in football. It also gave the Packers great comfort knowing that for however long quarterback Aaron Rodgers was in Green Bay, his blindside would be protected.

“Not too many people sign, get drafted, do two deals, do two four-year deals with the same club,” Bakhtiari said after signing his new contract. “I never really wanted to say that I get to be a Packer for life, but that is something that is really becoming true, and I control that now to finish it out to stay in one spot.”

Maybe not.

While everything was sunshine and rainbows the day Bakhtiari signed, it’s been thunderstorms ever since.

On New Year’s Eve of 2020, Bakhtiari suffered a torn ACL that included meniscus damage and has required at least three surgeries since. Bakhtiari missed the 2020 playoffs, played just 27 snaps in 2021 and missed that postseason, as well.

Bakhtiari was sidelined three games this year with injuries related to that same knee. And he’ll miss a second straight game Monday after suffering an appendectomy on Dec. 2.

In all, Bakhtiari will have played in just nine of Green Bay’s last 34 games (26.4%) after Monday’s contest against the Los Angeles Rams. And in four of the nine games Bakhtiari did play, he logged 57% of the snaps, or fewer.

Bakhtiari counts $29.065 million against Green Bay’s salary cap in 2023 — or 12.49% of available cap space. His cap hit is even worse in 2024, when he counts $32.965 against the cap (13.77%).is

According to overthecap.com, Green Bay currently has just $3.37 million of salary cap space available in 2023. That currently ranks just 22^nd in the league.

The Packers are also struggling through a 5-8 campaign and need to upgrade several positions to become a legitimate contender again. One way to free up money would be cutting the 31-year-old Bakhtiari and using the money elsewhere.

Whether or not the Packers do that will be one of their biggest story lines this offseason.

“Another offseason decision,” Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst said on Dec. 6. “We’ll try to get through all that stuff and see how everything fits. There’s so many things that are so interdependent on each other, but again, (Bakhtiari’s) playing at a really, really high level for us.”

While Bakhtiari’s cap hit the next two years is extremely high, Green Bay’s savings wouldn’t be as great if it moves on from him.

Bakhtiari has a dead cap hit of $23.13 million in 2023, meaning the Packers would save $5.934 million against the cap if they release him. Bakhtiari’s dead cap hit would be $11.565 million in 2024, meaning the Packers would save $21.4 million that year if he’s not on the roster.

Green Bay does have options if it moves on from Bakhtiari.

Rookie Zach Tom has filled in admirably for Bakhtiari and allowed just one sack in 261 snaps this season. While Tom (6-4, 304) doesn’t have ideal left tackle measurements, neither did Bakhtiari (6-4, 310) — one reason both players slipped to the fourth round.

“I think he’s really come a long way, especially just in his fundamentals,” Packers offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said of Tom. “As we know, he’s not a big guy, so just how he plays and how he’s helped himself play with better leverage and good hands and when you watch him in the run game, he’s come along and he’s actually a pretty productive guy in the run game. For a kid his size, he comes off the rock and hits people. So it’s been pretty cool to watch him just get better.”

Green Bay Pro Bowl left guard Elgton Jenkins and right tackle Yosh Nijman are both unrestricted free agents this offseason.

Despite suffering an ACL injury in 2021, Jenkins returned faster than Bakhtiari and has gotten progressively better as the season advances. Spotrac.com — another salary cap based website — estimates than Jenkins will have a market value of $7.1 million per year this offseason.

Nijman, who filled in admirably for Bakhtiari much of last season and has now found a home on the right side, has a market value of $3.3 million per season, according to spotrac.com.

Both Jenkins and Nijman are 26, five years younger than Bakhtiari. The Packers almost certainly can’t bring all three players back, so going with the younger, less-expensive Jenkins and Nijman might be their gameplan.

If that’s the case, Bakhtiari will go down as one of the Packers’ greatest, ‘What If?’ stories in recent memory.

Bakhtiari was a fourth-round draft pick in 2013, a year in which offensive tackles Eric Fisher and Luke Joeckel went 1-2 overall. Not only was Bakhtiari the best tackle from that draft class, he turned out to be one of the top five players overall.

Bakhtiari was thrust into the starting lineup as a rookie and performed like a pro from the get-go. Bakhtiari was a given a four-year, $48 million contract before the 2016 season, and a case could be made he outplayed that contract.

From 2015-2019, Bakhtiari had a pass-blocking grade of 95.9 (out of 100) from Pro Football Focus, which was far and away the highest in football. In fact from 2010-2019, Bakhtiari’s pass-blocking grade ranked No. 2 in the NFL behind only Cleveland’s Joe Thomas, a future Hall of Famer.

“I think he has Hall of Fame potential,” Rodgers said of Bakhtiari before the 2020 season began. “He’s an incredible player. When he’s over there, you feel really comfortable with him locking down pass rushers throughout the game. His leadership has been outstanding. He’s been a great locker room guy, he’s been a lot of fun to get to know.”

Bakhtiari was in the middle of a brilliant 2020 campaign, as well, when he sustained his devastating knee injury just before Week 17. Bakhtiari allowed career-lows in sacks (1.5) and pressures (11) that season.

Pro Football Focus gave Bakhtiari a pass blocking grade of 91.6 in 2020, which was No. 1 among offensive tackles. Bakhtiari also had the best season run blocking season of his career with a grade of 86.7, which was 17 points higher than any of his first seven seasons.

“He’s playing at an extremely high level,” Gutekunst said in Nov. 2020, after Bakhtiari signed his extension. “He’s very important to what we’re doing. So, I think we’ve always kind of believed when good players develop themselves into where he is we certainly like to retain ‘em. Really excited to keep him in the fold.”

Unfortunately for Bakhtiari — and the Packers — very little has gone as planned since that day.

And now, Bakhtiari’s time in Green Bay could soon be over.