Danny Garcia Vs. Jose Benavidez Jr.: Odds, Records, Prediction

It’s been 19 months since we’ve seen Danny Garcia. Now, the former two-division world titlist is back at a new weight class with the hope that he can have one last championship run. On Saturday, Jose Benavidez Jr. stands in his way. Here’s everything you need to know about Danny Garcia vs. Jose Benavidez Jr., including the odds, their records and a prediction on who will win.

The last time Garcia was in the ring was in December 2020 when he challenged Errol Spence for the unified welterweight title, and though Garcia gave a good account of himself, he clearly lost a unanimous decision.

In all, Garcia has only won three of his last six fights dating back to 2017. Perhaps moving up to the 154-pound junior middleweight division, when he’s spent his career at 140 and 147 pounds, can rejuvenate him at the age of 34.

“It’s not about weight; it’s about skill,” Garcia said. “You don’t become a three-time world champion because you’re just bigger. It’s about skill and technique, and that’s what we bring to the table.”

Garcia said junior middleweight is a good weight class for him at this point in his career, and he said he feels strong at 154 pounds and that he has more stamina. He also said he’s been sparring more than usual in this training camp.

Whether that will help keep him sharp when he faces Benavidez is anybody’s guess. But this will only be Benavidez’s second fight at junior middleweight (technically, at 158 pounds, he was a middleweight in his last fight vs. Francisco Torres, which ended in a disappointing draw), and he’s only fought once since getting knocked out by Terence Crawford in 2018.

Even so, Benavidez seems confident.

“He’s going to find out on Saturday that 154 pounds isn’t for him,” Benavidez said. “I fought Terence Crawford on one leg and gave him a fight. I know what I’m capable of and I’m going to fight like that.”

Here’s more info on the Danny Garcia vs. Jose Benavidez Jr. showdown that U.S. viewers can watch on Showtime beginning at 9 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Danny Garcia vs. Jose Benavidez Jr. odds

The oddsmakers seem to like Garcia, making him the -800 betting favorite (bet $800 to win $100), while Benavidez is the +500 underdog (win $500 on a $100 wager). I don’t like Garcia’s money line, but I think there’s some value in the -138 prop of Garcia winning by decision.

If you were looking for a fun parlay for this weekend’s action of boxing (and this is only for entertainment purposes), I might take Garcia to beat Benavidez by decision at -138, Adam Kownacki to beat Ali Eren Demirezen at +125 and for the Gary Antuanne Russell vs. Rances Barthelemy fight to go over 6.5 rounds at -125. If you hit all three legs, you’d win $598 on a $100 wager. If you just took Garcia to win at -800 in that parlay instead of him winning by decision, you’d win $355. I like that latter bet much better.

Danny Garcia vs. Jose Benavidez Jr. records

Though Garcia (36-3, 21 KOs) hasn’t had as much success since moving to 147 pounds from 140, he racked up a hugely impressive resume of wins as a junior welterweight, including Lucas Matthysse, Zab Judah, Erik Morales twice and Amir Khan. Since 2017, he’s lost to Keith Thurman, Shawn Porter and Thurman, but he does have solid welterweight wins vs. Adrian Granados and Ivan Redkach.

Benavidez hasn’t lived up to some lofty expectations that people had for him when he was early in his pro career, but he’s still 27-1-1 with 18 KOs. He put in a good performance in a losing effort to Crawford, but in the years prior to that, his biggest wins came against Mauricio Herrera (2014) and Jorge Paez Jr. (2015)

Danny Garcia vs. Jose Benavidez Jr. prediction

Unless Garcia has gotten old since his last fight, he should be way too skilled for Benavidez. It’s not impossible for Garcia to make noise at 154 pounds, which would bolster his Hall of Fame candidacy. Even though I wouldn’t give him a great chance to beat undisputed champion Jermell Charlo (or even top contenders like Sebastian Fundora or Brian Castano), he shouldn’t have many issues with Benavidez. Say, Garcia by decision, somewhere in the 118-110 range.