Damian Lillard’s Achilles Tear Might Signal End Of Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo Era

When the Milwaukee Bucks fell into a 2-0 hole against the Indiana Pacers in their first-round playoff series, speculation went into overdrive about what it might mean for the long-term future of star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Bucks briefly staved that off with a blowout victory in Game 3 on Friday, but they suffered a potentially franchise-altering disaster early in Game 4.

Midway through the first quarter, star point guard Damian Lillard tried to pursue a long rebuild off a missed three-pointer from teammate Gary Trent Jr., but he stumbled and immediately fell to the floor, grabbing his left ankle. He had to be helped off the court and put no pressure on his foot, which is never a good sign after a non-contact injury. Shortly thereafter, longtime NBA insider Chris Haynes reported Lillard was feared to have torn his Achilles tendon, which ESPN’s Shams Charania confirmed Monday.

Achilles injuries aren’t always the career-enders they once were. After all, Phoenix Suns forward Kevin Durant tore his Achilles during the 2019 NBA Finals and remains one of the league’s most lethal scorers a half-decade later. Dallas Mavericks guard Klay Thompson tore his Achilles during the 2020 offseason after he was working his way back from a torn ACL, and he’s still one of the top three-point shooters in the league. However, both Durant and Thompson missed an entire season to recover from their respective injuries.

Given Lillard’s age (he turns 35 in mid-July) and when he suffered his injury, he’s highly unlikely to make much of an impact next season. In fact, he very well might wind up missing the entire year.

After their 129-103 loss to the Pacers in Game 4, the Bucks are now one loss away from their third straight first-round playoff exit. They’ll have to beat the Pacers three times in a row, including twice on the road, without Lillard to move on and face the top-seeded Cleveland Cavaliers. The odds of that happening are roughly between slim and none.

Even if Lillard hadn’t gotten injured, the Bucks would be facing existential questions about their ability to build a championship contender around Antetokounmpo moving forward. Those are only going to ratchet up tenfold in the wake of Lillard’s injury.

The Have Bucks’ Limited Flexibility

The good news for the Bucks is that they have Antetokounmpo on a guaranteed contract for at least two more years. The bad news is just about everything else.

Lillard is set to earn $54.1 million next year and has a $58.5 million player option for the 2026-27 season. It’s nearly impossible for an NBA team to overcome spending that much on someone without getting star-level production in return. The Bucks might get absolutely nothing on that investment next season.

Kyle Kuzma, who has largely fallen flat on his face against the Pacers in the playoffs, is the Bucks’ third-highest-paid player at $22.4 million next season. Kuzma was a valuable reserve on the championship-winning 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers, but he is not “third-best player on a title team” material, much less second-best in the wake of Lillard’s injury. His contract descends to $20.4 million in 2026-27, which should give him some semblance of trade value, but he has hardly proved to be the missing piece whom they hoped they were acquiring at this year’s trade deadline.

Starting center Brook Lopez, who turned 37 at beginning of April, is set to become an unrestricted free agent this offseason. Bobby Portis ($13.4 million), Pat Connaughton ($9.4 million) and Kevin Porter Jr. ($2.5 million) could join him by declining their respective player options. Rookie power forward Tyler Smith, whom the Bucks selected with the 33rd overall pick in the 2024 draft, is the only player who’s under guaranteed contract next season other than Antetokounmpo, Lillard and Kuzma.

That might make it sound like the Bucks have a ton of flexibility to retool around Antetokounmpo and Lillard this offseason, but they don’t. Antetokounmpo, Lillard and Kuzma alone will earn more than $130 million next year. The salary cap is projected to be $154.6 million. If Portis and/or Connaughton pick up their player options, that alone would push the Bucks close to the cap. Re-signing Lopez could send them soaring over it.

The Bucks also don’t have a single point guard other than Lillard under guaranteed contract for next season. If Porter decides to test the market, the Bucks only have non-Bird rights on him, which means they can’t offer him more than 120% of a veteran-minimum salary unless they sign him another way (such as their mid-level exception). Ryan Rollins, who averaged a career-high 6.2 points, 1.9 rebounds and 1.9 assists in 14.6 minutes per game this season, is set to become a restricted free agent.

So, to recap: The Bucks could have multiple key free agents (Lopez, Portis, Porter) this summer, likely won’t have cap space to replace any of them if they leave, and they aren’t even guaranteed to have access to the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

The Only Way Out?

After winning the NBA title in 2020-21, the Bucks have won exactly one playoff series in the past four years. They’ve already traded away three of their next five first-round picks, and other teams have the right to swap first-rounders with them in 2026, 2028 and 2030. They’ve also traded all of their own second-round picks through 2030.

The Bucks do have a 2025 second-round pick from the Detroit Pistons and a top-55-protected 2026 second-round pick from the Utah Jazz (which has zero chance of conveying). Otherwise, they only have three picks either in the first or second round over the next six years. In other words, they can’t bank on the draft to deliver much help anytime soon.

With their hands largely tied in both free agency and the draft, that leaves trades as the one obvious method to improve their roster. However, Lillard’s injury even saps them of flexibility in that regard.

Had the Bucks decided to pull the ripcord on Lillard this offseason in a desperate, last-ditch attempt to salvage the Antetokounmpo era, they might have been able to recoup some of what they gave up for him two years ago. Now that he’s likely out for most or all of next season, they may struggle to find a suitor that’s willing to take him on.

Even if Antetokounmpo doesn’t demand a trade this offseason, the Lillard injury effectively slams the door shut on the Bucks’ title chances next year. Perhaps they can sell Antetokounmpo on a larger pivot in 2026, particularly after they just signed general manager Jon Horst to an extension. However, a handful of teams around the league already appear to be lining up max cap space for that offseason, and Lillard figures to pick up his $58.5 million player option in the wake of this injury. Relief might not be right around the corner.

The Bucks might decide to delay the inevitable this offseason regardless. But Lillard’s injury is likely the beginning of the end for Antetokounmpo’s tenure in Milwaukee.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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