Dallas Mavericks Have Best Odds To Keep No. 10 Pick In 2023 NBA Draft Lottery

Dallas Mavericks general manager Nico Harrison will represent the franchise at the NBA Draft Lottery on Tuesday, May 16. It will be the team’s first appearance in the lottery since 2019 when the ping pong balls awarded the Mavericks with the tenth overall pick.

The Mavericks’ front office and fans watching on television have a lot riding on how those ping-pong balls bounce this year. Dallas sits in a precarious position, holding onto the best odds for the tenth pick in this summer’s NBA Draft. However, there is a chance they could drop a spot and lose their pick altogether. Given Dallas’ history of lousy lottery luck, it’s a real possibility.

Since the league introduced the NBA Draft Lottery system in 1985, the Mavericks have never moved up from their pre-lottery position to claim a higher pick in 16 lottery appearances. Making matters worse, Dallas has fallen one-or-more spots in the draft lottery seven times — 1986, 1990, 1992, 1993, 1994, 2018 and 2019.

If fate aligns against the franchise again this year and the Mavericks fall in the lottery — Dallas has a 19% chance to drop to eleventh, 1.2% odds to land in twelfth and better than zero chances of picking at 13 or 14 — their pick then conveys to the New York Knicks. Dallas still owes the Knicks a first-round draft pick as part of the 2019 trade for Kristaps Porzingis. If this year’s top-10 protected pick doesn’t convey, New York will receive Dallas’ 2024 first-round pick.

Luckily, the Mavericks have the best odds of staying right where they are. Dallas has a 65.9% probability of holding onto the No. 10 pick in the 2023 draft. There’s also an outside shot at moving up and snagging one of the top four picks in the draft.

Dallas has a 3% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick in this year’s draft. If the lottery gods grant the Mavericks a miracle, it would mean that the team has a chance to draft highly regarded French prospect Victor Wembanyama. The Mavericks also hold odds of 3.3%, 3.6% and 4% of drawing second, third or fourth, respectively.

Securing the best odds to keep the tenth pick was costly for the Mavericks. The team tanked the final two games of the regular season, sitting key players. Motivated by comments made by head coach Jason Kidd, the NBA investigated Dallas’ decision to rest players and determined that Dallas violated league rules. The league fined the team $750,000.

With the odds of keeping their pick in their favor, the Mavericks’ draft fate now rests in 14 ping-pong balls numbered one through 14, with each number representing a different lottery team. Out of 1,001 possible four-number combinations, only one combination will award a team the first overall pick.

The ping-pong balls have tormented the Mavericks since the inception of the NBA Draft Lottery. They always seem to deal Dallas a devastating blow. With Harrison representing the team at the lottery for the first time, maybe this is the year the Mavericks finally see the balls bounce their way.