Cut rates as widely expected – TDS

The Bank of England cut Bank Rate today by 25bps, as universally expected. The vote was 8-1 in favour, with one dissent to hold from Mann. Guidance was left broadly unchanged, with the MPC noting that ‘a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate’, TDS’ macro analysts note.

BoE guidance virtually unchanged

“As nearly universally expected, the Bank of England cut Bank Rate today by 25bps to 4.75%. The vote to cut was decisive, at 8-1. The MPC’s analysis of the recent budget yielded a substantial boost to growth and inflation, reinforcing its guidance of gradual cuts.”

“The upgrades to inflation and growth were met with unchanged guidance. This left rates markets with a rather blurry picture. We still think that the BoE decision should help somewhat to calm the rates space after last week’s budget. Trading wise we favour steeper 2s10s curves.”

“The GBP strength from the BoE decision can be short-lived with the risk of hawkish FOMC and the looming risk of US election implications. GBP positioning is still more optimistic than non-USD peers making it vulnerable to a correction. We like GBP lower vs USD and JPY.”