Cubs Open Camp Hoping Swanson Can Make Them Relevant Again

The Cubs have fallen, and we’re about to find out if they can get up.

They open spring training in Mesa, Ariz., trying to prove that they have been merely pausing to reload, not returning to the mediocrity they settled for in the era when they allowed Greg Maddux to walk away and failed to put a competitive core around Sammy Sosa and Mark Grace. Owner Tom Ricketts and president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer invested more than $300 million in free agents in the off-season, and now it’s up to David Ross and his coaches to blend the newcomers together.

It’s surprising it has come to this given the success the Cubs experienced in the Theo Epstein era. But a franchise that had played .579 baseball for six and a half seasons (547-398 from 2015 through June 24, 2021) has gone 106-143 since it became clear Ricketts was willing to break up a homegrown lineup built around Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber.

It’s asking a lot for the Cubs to spring back into contention in a National League Central dominated by St. Louis and Milwaukee but they believe newcomers Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger can join second-year pieces Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman to help avoid a third consecutive losing season.

Manager David Ross is popular from his stint with the championship team in 2016 — as well as a turn on “Dancing With the Stars” — but has seemed more like a caretaker than a difference-maker in three seasons since replacing Joe Maddon. Here are five key questions hanging over the Cubs as Ross tries to turn up the dial on relevance in Wrigleyville:

1. Is Swanson deserving of his status as one of four iconic shortstops on the free-agent market? He emerged as a force with championship level teams in Atlanta but hasn’t turned in the consistent production that drove up the demand for Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts and Carlos Correa. Swanson’s seven-year, $177 million deal figures to make him a focal point of the team until at least 2027, and history shows players often struggle in their first season after signing a cornerstone level contract. Swanson and second baseman Nico Hoerner should be strong defensively but can the guy who hit eighth when Atlanta won the 2021 World Series produce in the middle of the order?
2. Can Taillon and Stroman be one of the best 1-2 combinations this side of Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff? For the Cubs to be successful, it’s imperative they get innings from the front of the rotation. Taillon, mostly a tease through his age-30 season, has thrown 180 innings in a season only once but gave the Yankees 32 starts a year ago. His fastball-slider combination isn’t as dominating as it could be in his early years in Pittsburgh but an improved curveball sets up a quality mix of pitches. Stroman has consistently been a 3-WAR starter but was handled carefully because of shoulder concerns last season.
3. Can the Professor solve his toughest problem? Kyle Hendricks has consistently made doubters look foolish, delivering 87 wins and four 180-plus inning seasons while using a high-80s fastball to set up a once-astonishing changeup. He enters his age-33 season — and the last guaranteed year on his contract — with an existential crisis caused by a capsule tear in his shoulder. Hendricks has been encouraged by his rehab in the off-season and isn’t yet even on the 60-day disabled list. But he isn’t expected to throw off the mound until March and was struggling (4-6, 4.80 in 16 starts) before being sidelined last July. Little would make Cub fans feel better than him running off a string of strong starts.
4. Are there any stars in the wings? The Cubs’ turnaround under Epstein was accomplished with high-ceiling players acquired in the draft or at the front ends of their career. But, outside of Hoerner, the last seven drafts have been unproductive. Christopher Morel, signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2015 (the same year Ian Happ was drafted), will get a look to be the regular third baseman this season but otherwise the best prospects are likely to start arriving later this season, if not in 2024. That watch list is headed by outfielders Pete Crow-Armstrong, Brennan Davis, Kevin Alcantara, Alexander Canario and Owen Caissie.
5. Can Bellinger get his groove on? A superstar with the Dodgers at the start of his career — he delivered a .278/.369/.559 slash line in 2017-19, all before his age-24 season — he has been a shadow of himself since the pandemic season. He’s fine physically but has been a mess upstairs. The Dodgers’ Andrew Friedman non-tendered him in November, and the Cubs scooped him up. Signed for one year and a mutual option for a guaranteed $17.5 million, Bellinger will be the primary center fielder as he tries to turn around his trend of increased strikeouts. Success would be speak well for the newest hitting coaches, Dustin Kelly and Jim Adduci.