Cubs’ Matthew Boyd Looks Like The Steal Of The Year In MLB

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS – JULY 22: Matthew Boyd #16 of the Chicago Cubs pitches during the second inning against the Kansas City Royals at Wrigley Field on July 22, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Geoff Stellfox/Getty Images)

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Matthew Boyd will make his team-high 25th start for the Cubs on Tuesday. He’s gone from being a depth piece to the rock of the rotation in his 11th big-league season, mostly due to understanding himself.

When the Cubs signed Boyd to a two-year, $29 million contract last December — the first multi-year deal of his career — the valuation was met with surprise by multiple analysts. The Athletic’s Tim Britton has forecast that the left-hander would receive a one-year deal worth $11 million for his age-34 season, and he wasn’t alone in believing the Jed Hoyer/Carter Hawkins front office had overpaid.

“Matthew Boyd doesn’t have the track record of a pitcher who ought to get a multi-year deal worth nearly $30 million to join the rotation of a team trying to get into the playoffs,” ESPN’s Bradford Doolittle wrote. “That payout — $14.5 million per season for two years — is very much the going rate for a back-of-the-rotation veteran starter. The problem is that if the Cubs are overrating what Boyd did for Cleveland in 2024, then he’s taking a rotation spot that a more consistent pitcher would hold down. If that’s the case, the money really does matter.”

Bleacher Nation’s Brett Taylor wrote that the Cubs were making “an ENORMOUS bet on Boyd’s recent small-sample success, and on their ability to coast the best out of him.” The Athletic’s Keith Law projected that Boyd would allow 35-40 home runs if he was healthy enough to make 30 starts and derided the Cubs for not chasing bigger fish.

“There’s a joke around baseball that the Cubs are trying to build the perfect roster of two-three win players but no stars,” Law said. “You don’t win that way.”

Less than a week later, Hoyer/Hawkins traded for Kyle Tucker, which pretty much erased that narrative. But back to Boyd and the rotation.

He was a sixth-round pick from a strong college program (Oregon State) and reached the big leagues in his second full pro season, at age 24. He was blessed with a wipeout slider and command of his pitches but steadily worked his way to the back of the Tigers’ rotation, going 37-60 with a 4.90 ERA from 2015 through ’21.

Boyd was healthy during this stretch, for the most part. But a hamstring injury in 2020 started him on a downward path that led to elbow problems in 22-23, ultimately ending in Tommy John surgery midway through ’23.

Credit the Cubs for noticing the growth in Boyd when he returned with Cleveland last season. He made his first start post-surgery on August 13, working 5 1/3 strong innings against the Cubs. No doubt that outing put him on the radar for Hoyer and Hawkins.

Boyd was 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA in eight starts, then made three strong starts against the Tigers and Yankees in the postseason. He’s continued that success in Chicago, going 11-6 with a 2.46 ERA over 142 2/3 innings. He may have led American League pitchers in home runs allowed in 2019 and ’20 but no longer is that guy, allowing only one every 12 innings post-surgery. He was rewarded with his first trip to the All-Star Game.

Boyd began his career pitching alongside perennial All-Star Justin Verlander, and has said he dug himself a hole by trying to get Verlander-style vertical drop on his pitches. The key to his revival is reverting to his natural low three-quarters arm slot — 25 degrees, according to Statcast — and trusting the unusually large horizontal movement on his fastball.

His once-trademark slider is now his third pitch, behind his four-seam fastball (46 percent) and changeup (24 percent). He’s gained velocity on his fastball this season but at 93.2 mph it’s only in the 30th percentile. Yet it has 94th percentile effectiveness, per Statcast, holding hitters to a .238 average and .363 slugging percentage.

Assuming continued health, Boyd projects to working 190 innings over 32 starts. Then there will probably be at least one more postseason start, as the Cubs hold a 4 1/2-game cushion for a wild card spot despite falling eight games behind Milwaukee in the National League Central.

Boyd’s deal paid him $12.5 million this season and includes a $14.5 million salary in 2026 and either a $15 million salary or a $2 million buyout for ’27.

That looks like one of the best bargains from last December’s flurry of activities — made even more so by the injuries to Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga and Jameson Taillon. The next chapters in this narrative have become more intriguing than anyone imagined, except possibly Hoyer, Hawkins and their pitching specialists.