Cubs Have Been Painted Into Corner On Swanson Negotiations

You’ve seen the numbers, and so has Jed Hoyer and his boss, Tom Ricketts.

Carlos Correa just signed for $350 million over 13 years with the San Francisco Giants. Before that, Trea Turner had cut an 11-year, $300 million deal with the Philadelphia Phillies, and Xander Bogaerts had agreed to an 11-year deal with the Padres for $280 million over 11 years.

Total it up and it’s a cool $930 million over 35 years, guaranteed. That’s an average annual value of $26.57 million, which nicely illustrates how Ricketts and Hoyer have painted themselves into a corner by letting their fans know they want to add an elite shortstop.

While Dansby Swanson isn’t on the same level as Correa, Turner and Bogaerts, he is the last man standing anywhere near the top rung on the ladder. And there is a lot of competition for his services, with the Dodgers, Red Sox, Twins, Braves and possibly even a team like the Mets, Mariners or Cardinals in the mix.

MLB Trade Rumors’ Steve Adams originally projected that Swanson would land a seven-year, $154 million contract. But it’s clear he’s going to go beyond that level, as Adams was low by 25 percent with his projections of deals for Correa, Turner and Bogaerts (while missing the years by 46 percent, on the low side).

This is a wild, wild market. So call it 10 years, $193 million for Swanson, assuming one of the pursuing teams steps up aggressively to land a new team leader.

Even if that is a little high, it looks like the Cubs would have to commit at least $160 million over eight years to win the bidding for Swanson. Otherwise they have to hope their fans will be satisfied with Jameson Taillon, Cody Bellinger and a few secondary adds.

But the questions won’t stop if they do sign Bellinger to a deal that approaches the franchise record $184 million deal with Jason Heyward.

Here’s one: If you are going to let the market dictate what you spend to add Swanson, why didn’t you hang onto some of the star players who helped you win a World Series?

Swanson, who turns 29 in February, has been worth 14.5 rWAR over seven seasons. That includes 5.7 last year and 1.9 when he was the shortstop and No. 5 hitter on the Braves’ championship team.

Through their age-28 seasons, first baseman Anthony Rizzo, third baseman Kris Bryant and Javier Baez had generated 29.7, 25.5 and 24.4 rWAR. Yet the Cubs traded all three of them at mid-season 2021 rather than extending their contracts.

It’s unknown how far Hoyer (and Theo Epstein before him) went in contract offers for the trio. But Rizzo summed up the situation nicely when he said “the common denominator” was they didn’t get deals with any of them.

Perhaps Swanson was only hitting his stride when he won a Gold Glove while delivering 25 home runs and a .776 OPS last season. If he can keep that up for five years, the Cubs could look smart for pivoting away from Baez to him.

But what about the shortstop they already have on the roster?

Nico Hoerner won’t hit for power like Swanson but he’s a very solid player. Hoerner enters his age-26 season having compiled 6.6 rWAR in only 247 games, including 4.5 last season. He’s on a path that could make him as productive as Swanson — judged by WAR alone — through his age-28 season.

Signing Swanson or keeping Hoerner isn’t an either/or proposition for the Cubs, of course. They will move Hoerner to second base if they sign Swanson. But they still would be a long way away from playing edge-of-your-seats games in September or October.

The Cubs’ ownership and front office needs to restore credibility with a large share of their fanbase, and at this point the easiest way to do that is to pay the surprisingly high freight to sign Swanson. But they wouldn’t be in this position if they had not so thoroughly deconstructed their own roster.