With Bitcoin’s on-chain momentum now entering the “start” rally zone (Ratio ≈ 0.8 or 80%), CryptoQuant analysts believe the next six months could define the trajectory of BTC’s price action.
According to on-chain metrics such as NUPL and MVRV, three distinct outcomes are possible depending on how this ratio evolves.
1. Bullish Breakout Scenario ($150K–$175K Target)
If the ratio breaks above 1.0 and sustains that level, it could signal a renewed impulse in buying activity. This move would echo Bitcoin’s breakout patterns in 2017 and 2021. In this optimistic scenario, BTC could rally to as high as $175,000, supported by strong investor conviction and cyclical momentum.
2. Sideways Consolidation ($90K–$110K Range)
Should the ratio hover between 0.8 and 1.0, the market may remain range-bound. In this case, BTC could fluctuate between $90K and $110K as participants hold positions but hesitate to increase exposure. This base-case scenario implies moderate momentum without a clear breakout or correction.
3. Bearish Pullback ($70K–$85K Risk)
If the ratio falls below 0.75, short-term holders are expected to take profits. This could trigger a market correction with prices retreating to the $70K–$85K zone. However, since one correction has already occurred, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. suggests the first two (bullish and base case) scenarios are statistically more likely.
As Bitcoin continues to hover in a critical zone, market participants should closely watch on-chain signals to gauge the next major move.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoin-cryptoquant-outlines-3-key-scenarios-for-the-next-move/