Credit Suisse Strategists Say Sell Bear Market Rally in Stocks

(Bloomberg) — With stock markets staging a strong rally, Credit Suisse Group AG strategists have a message for investors: sell into it.

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A team led by Andrew Garthwaite said they remain cautious on equities as diminishing real money supply, elevated stock valuations and “extreme” risk to earnings all imply further declines before the market finds a bottom.

Based on their earnings estimates for next year, Garthwaite sees the S&P 500 Index trading between 3,000 and 3,200 points — at least 13% below current levels. “Bear markets are larger and last for longer,” he wrote in a strategy note.

The warning will serve as a reminder of the market’s fragility as global stock indexes rally on optimism that weak economic data will deter the Federal Reserve from tightening policy at an overly aggressive pace. Bond yields have pulled back, while S&P 500 futures imply another session of strong gains for the benchmark index on Tuesday.

Some technical indicators also point to a short-term bounce, one being that 88% of S&P 500 members are below their 200-day moving average. According to Garthwaite, markets have posted one-month gains from these levels “100% of the time.”

But with equity funds yet to see “significant” outflows, there has been “little sign of capitulation,” the strategist said. In addition, although downgrades to corporate earnings have begun, economic data implies further downside, he said.