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The March 21 posting advised a short sale on US notes. It was noted that the 25th was likely to be the low and that the price target was 123.6. The price action is depicted in chart one. The reasons cited for the decline were three-fold. First, March has seasonally been the weakest month for price as can be seen in chart two. In fact, this week ending on the 25th has been down more than 80% of the time since 1982. Secondly, the weekly dynamic cycle in chart three fell in March. Lastly, the monthly cycle was also in decline.
Chart two reveals that April has been a flat month. Charts three and four show that the weekly and monthly cycles are bottoming. The upside objectives are 126.5 and 129.4. The lower target is more likely because notes are in a bear market and April has not been a strong month.
1-Weekly Notes
Notes have reached the target retracement level.
2-Monthly Histogram
March has been the weakest month for the US note price.
3-Weekly Cycle
The weekly note cycle has bottomed.
4-Monthly Cycle
The monthly cycle is also hitting a low.
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2022/03/24/cover-bond-short-sales/