Could Real Madrid Get Even Worse This Season?

After the Club World Cup, Real Madrid has played just one preseason game.

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It’s a blank slate for Real Madrid. After underperforming with no significant silverware last term, it’s determined to regain superiority this season under a different leader, Xabi Alonso, and a host of new players. Given Real’s highest standards, it’s bold to call a worse outcome.

As mentioned here, Real—second and four points off champion Barcelona last time—is odds-on with the bookmakers to win La Liga on this occasion. According to Opta’s supercomputer, Los Blancos will come second to its historic rival again. There’s a confidence that Real Madrid almost always does Real Madrid things. In other words, win stuff. And that personnel changes will reinvigorate the club, leading to a top-two league finish at the very least, plus a trophy.

While that may ultimately ring true, the hangover—running into the Club World Cup where a rampant Paris Saint-Germain tore Real apart in the semifinals—is also a worthwhile guide. In 2024/25, Real lacked structure. That can work for a team where galácticos jam off each other on the day, yet the holes in the side were clear. For all its offensive might, it scored 24 fewer than Barça in La Liga, and should probably have conceded more than its tally of 38.

On Monday, Madrid enters its first league test against Osasuna on the back of a 4-0 friendly victory over Austrian Bundesliga outfit WSG Tirol—a nice boost ahead of the real action. That the returning defender Éder Militão was on the scoresheet is symbolic. The Brazilian missed out on the majority of last season due to a torn anterior cruciate ligament. Whether the entire unit returns to its best is at the forefront of people’s minds.

A (Somewhat) Unknown Quantity

As referenced, there’s a predictability about Real—that it finds a way to prosper, no matter what. Reinforcing that point, Alonso has clear ideas on how to play, and his side will carry plenty of belief. That was true at his former club, Bayer Leverkusen, where the players knew their roles and had a liking for late goals when needing to rescue points. It bodes well for his current employer—needing new impetus and no stranger to an overtime winner.

However, it’s up in the air as to whether Alonso’s Madrid will have a similar aura as predecessor Carlo Ancelotti’s, which only disappeared toward the end of the Italian’s reign. There are also question marks when many signings, like Franco Mastantuono, come in. On top of how they settle, will a Luka Modric-less entity suffer? Is Arda Güler the one to take on some of his role? Will the initial absence of Jude Bellingham—so influential in 2023/24—hurt? With the number 10 jersey, will Kylian Mbappé be more central or start wide? And what about a spot in the lineup for Gonzalo García, a classic striker from the academy?

On the challengers, a full-throttle Barcelona looks a safer bet for the title. More absorbing is Atlético Madrid: Los Colchoneros have been active in the market again, selling a few and going big on signings once again—headlined by Álex Baena. Athletic Club, bent on improving its fourth-place finish, is buoyed by keeping star man Nico Williams, which helps the league’s competitiveness nearer the top of the table. It’s hard to see anyone else in contention around the summit.

All the while, there is a feel of unpredictability on the eve of La Liga. As of Wednesday, clubs across the top two divisions are yet to formally register (Spanish) many of their transfers as they aim to meet flexible yet demanding financial rules. That includes Barcelona fighting to list incoming attacker Marcus Rashford. Back to Real Madrid, Alonso has the credentials in the long run. His first season in charge will bring teething problems in a relatively open race.