Could Abreu Be Odd Man Out As White Sox Open First Base For Vaughn?

Jose Abreu has been an American League MVP and a Rookie of the Year in his nine seasons with the White Sox. He’s been an All-Star on a regular basis and won a nice collection of Silver Slugger awards.

He’s on the precipice of becoming something he’s never been: Odd man out.

While addressing Tony La Russa’s unsurprising retirement on Monday, General Manager Rick Hahn essentially said as much. Abreu is headed toward free agency after the season, and Hahn said “it remains to be seen” if he remains a fit for the team.

This wasn’t a case of an executive blowing off steam when cornered by reporters after a horribly disappointing season. This was at a news conference called by the team, after lots of soul searching about how it barely reached 80 wins after expecting to win 90-plus in the regular season and more in October.

While Hahn told reporters the Sox had “lost our offensive approach,” the team’s problems appear at least as much structural as philosophical. They were one of the worst fielding teams in the major leagues, which continues a long trend.

The White Sox have allowed 86 unearned runs, the most in the AL (and only two less than the majors-worst Cubs, who are barely trying). Fangraphs lists them at -30 Defensive Runs Saved, the 24th worst total in the majors.

The South Side outfield is a land of opportunity for opposing hitters. Sox outfielders are 27th in the majors with a combined -19 DRS.

It appears Hahn, VP Ken Williams and their baseball staff may finally attempt to address the fielding issues, which in one form or another have existed since Ozzie Guillen’s team unraveled after winning the 2005 World Series and going 57-31 in the first half of ’06.

There’s an irony in this for Abreu. He was initially a defensive liability after arriving from Cuba in 2014 but in recent years has improved his conditioning and his footwork.

Abreu has become an average fielder, based on the metrics. He’s not really bad of the defensive problems. But Andrew Vaughn, a first baseman who is being force-fit into the outfield, is a huge problem.

Vaughn receives a grade of -17 DRS from Fangraphs, including a -8 playing left field and a -6 in right field. By comparison, Eloy Jimenez (-2 as a part-time left fielder) is a Gold Glover.

The simplest change the White Sox can make would also be the most dramatic change. They can allow their heart-and-soul guy, Abreu, to leave as a free agent and turn first base over to Vaughn, a prolific slugger at Cal-Berkeley who was the third overall pick in the 2019 draft.

Jimenez seems destined to become the primary designated hitter next season. He appears awkward and injury prone in the outfield and has thrived as a DH in second half of this season, putting up a .945 OPS in 64 games.

Economics always play a role, of course.

Hahn is likely under some pressure to reduce an already franchise-record payroll that could climb above $210 million if he kept it together. His April 1 trade for AJ Pollock — a result of his bold, failed trade for Craig Kimbrel at the deadline in 2021 — is no joke in terms of its future impact.

Pollock’s four-year, $55-million deal signed with the Dodgers in 2019 included a player option for the 2023 season. It has increased from $10 million to $13 million from plate appearance thresholds he’s achieved, and he is expected to exercise it after a season in which he has posted a .686 OPS and registered 0.9 WAR.

Pencil in Pollock in left field and Luis Robert in center for next year’s White Sox, barring trades. Gavin Sheets, another force-fitted first baseman, has likely disqualified himself from right field consideration by delivering a career -10 DRS when played there.

That leaves the last outfield spot open for ether a newcomer or prospects Oscar Colas and Yoelqui Cespedes. It leaves no room for Abreu.

Abreu, 35, has consistently said he wants to finish his career on the South Side. That may help explain the lack of outside interest in him when his initial deal with the Sox expired after 2019. Nobody thought he was going anywhere after he led the AL with 123 RBIs and he proved conventional wisdom right by accepting a qualifying offer, then re-signing for $50 million over three years.

Expect an active market this time around. Abreu has demonstrated sustainability in his mid-thirties. He appears to be evolving as a hitter, with a .378 on-base percentage and increase in doubles offsetting his drop in home runs. His strikeout-walk ratio is by far the best of his career.

Why wouldn’t Abreu land a multi-year contract in the same neighborhood of his current contract? Nelson Cruz averaged 41 homers and 101 RBIs after Seattle signed him to a four-year, $57-million deal entering his age-34 season.

This disappointing season has been an emotional one, at times, for Abreu. He’s sure to have a lot on his mind on Wednesday afternoon, when he could be wearing a White Sox uniform for the last time.