Investor and analyst Fred Krueger has stirred conversation by questioning a core assumption in Bitcoin cycle analysis: what if 2025 has already marked the top?
In a tweet published June 4, Krueger shared a bar chart visualizing Bitcoin’s top-to-top price ratios across each cycle. The graphic paints a clear picture: every subsequent cycle has produced smaller relative gains from one top to the next.
- 2011–2013: ~35x growth
- 2013–2017: ~17x
- 2017–2021: ~5x
- 2021–2025: ~2x (so far)
“Everybody focuses on the trendline and the bottoms,” Krueger wrote. “But what if we focused on the tops, and what if 2025 was in fact the local top?”
The Math Behind Market Psychology
To further illustrate the point, Krueger followed up with a second tweet featuring a logarithmic chart titled “Logarithmic Decline Over Time With Trendline.” The graph shows how, when plotted on a log scale, Bitcoin’s growth factor has consistently declined since 2011.
Importantly, Krueger clarifies that he doesn’t necessarily believe BTC is in long-term decline. Instead, he highlights how mathematical models can reinforce pre-existing narratives—whether bullish or bearish.
“This is an example of how you can see (negative) trends in everything,” Krueger said. “I don’t believe this personally, but it shows how math can anchor pre-set beliefs.”
Why It Matters
Krueger’s insights come at a time when Bitcoin hovers near recent highs, with questions about cycle timing and sustainability dominating crypto discussions.
If this cycle’s peak is already behind us—or if growth continues to decelerate—the market may need to adjust long-term expectations.
For now, Bitcoin remains in a historically weaker growth phase, and Krueger’s data challenges investors to rethink where we really are in the macro cycle.
Kosta Gushterov
Reporter at Coindoo
Kosta has been a part of the team since 2021 and has solidified his position with a thirst for knowledge, incredible dedication to his work and a “detective-like” mindset. He not only covers a wide range of trending topics, he also creates reviews, PR articles and educational content. His work has also been referenced by other news outlets.
Source: https://coindoo.com/bitcoins-slowing-growth-could-2025-mark-the-cycle-top/