Core inflation remains well above targets in most G20 countries

“The first quarter global growth slightly outpaced projections in its April forecasts, but data since then has shown a mixed picture, with ‘pockets of resilience’ alongside signs of slowing momentum,” per the International Monetary Fund (IMF) briefing note for the Group of 20 nations (G20) finance leaders meeting in India.

The global lender also conveyed its expectations of a peak in global inflation during 2022 while also saying that the core inflation, while also easing, remains above targets in most G20 countries.

Reuters also quotes the IMF as keeping its April 2023 global GDP growth forecast intact at 2.8% – down from 3.4% in 2022, while also citing the ‘mostly’ downside risk.

It’s worth noting that the IMF also flagged concerns that the services inflation, which appears a major driver of core inflation of late, may take longer to decline. However, the resilient output and labor markets, with cooling demand translating into fewer job vacancies rather than higher unemployment, can allow inflation to fall faster than expected, per the IMF.

Market implications

The news seems to add to the market’s reassessment of the dovish Fed concerns and put a floor under the US Dollar Index, sidelined near the 100.00 round figure by the press time after falling the most in a week since November 2022.