COP28 Chief Outlines Climate Challenge As Countdown To ‘Global Stocktake’ Starts

There was widespread consternation at the lacklustre COP27 climate conference in Egypt at the end of 2022, and fears that a similar lack of ambition would prevail as the journey starts to COP28, to be held in the United Arab Emirates, one of the world’s biggest oil producers.

But as the UAE starts the countdown to the next UN climate conference at the end of the year, there is a notable sense of urgency, purpose and realism – in the climate community at large, and from the next summit hosts.

COP28 will be a significant moment because it marks the first “global stocktake”, a comprehensive assessment of progress against the goals of the Paris Agreement. Dr Sultan Al Jaber, COP28 President, said during an event at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, hosted by Masdar, Abu Dhabi’s renewable energy developer, one of the biggest clean energy investors in the world.

“We don’t need to wait for the stocktake to know what it will say,” Al Jaber said. “We are way off track. The world is playing catch-up when it comes to the key Paris goal of holding temperatures down to 1.5C and the hard reality is that to achieve this goal, global emissions must fall 43% by 2030. To add to the challenge, we must decrease emissions at a time of continued economic uncertainty, heightened geopolitical tensions and increasing pressure on energy security.”

US climate envoy John Kerry was similarly downbeat. “We need to be blunt. Nothing indicates that countries are prepared to do what we need to do to meet the 1.5C target. The evidence is that because we are moving so slowly, we are putting ourselves at risk of far greater costs and missing out on the opportunities of the energy transition.”

The stocktake will be a moment of truth, said Simon Stiell, executive director of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. “It will be an exercise in ambition, accountability and accelerating action, making sure that all parties are holding up their end of the bargain.”

The conclusion of the stocktake will involve a “course correction” to get back on the right track, added India’s Minister of Power and New and Renewable Energy, Raj Kumar Singh.

Al Jaber told delegates that “we are at a turning point in history. Low carbon growth is the future but we must get there faster. We must triple renewable energy generation by 2030, more than double low carbon hydrogen production and transform food and agriculture systems.” He also called for a doubling of adaptation finance to $40 billion a year by 2025.

There has been significant disquiet among environmentalists about Al Jaber’s appointment to the COP28 presidency because of his role as head of ADNOC, Abu Dhabi’s state-owned oil company. But he is also a government minister (for industry and advanced technology) and head of Masdar, the emirate’s clean energy business and one of the largest investors in renewable energy around the world.

And he is saying all the right things, at least, stating that “there will be a time when we load the last barrel of oil. If our plans and investment are right, it will be a moment of celebration.

“The UAE approaches this task with a great sense of urgency. We are determined to make COP28 a COP for All, a COP of Action. A COP where the Global North and Global South really listen to each other. A COP where we move from goals to getting it done across mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage. And a COP where we deliver a new deal on climate finance.

“The task ahead is massive, but so is the opportunity. The road to net zero represents the biggest market transformation with the greatest economic promise since the first industrial revolution.”

Fine words have foundered on the rocks of reality in the UN climate process many times before, but there is a business-like tone and sense of urgency from the COP28 presidency, as well as support for action ranging from the US to Europe and India. That gives hope that the results of the global stocktake – which will highlight how far we are off track for meeting our climate targets – can accelerate progress and put us back on the right track to limit temperature rises to 1.5C.