Cooper Flagg Could Reshape Sixers’ Offseason Plans

Monday is potentially a franchise-changing day for the Philadelphia 76ers.

If the Sixers win the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA draft lottery—giving them the right to draft Duke forward Cooper Flagg—it could help them rebound from perhaps the most disappointing season in franchise history. But if the ping-pong balls bounce the wrong way, they won’t even have a first-round pick at all this year.

As part of the Al Horford trade from 2020, the Sixers owe their first-rounder to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside of the top six. Entering the lottery, they have a 63.96% chance of retaining the pick and a 36.04% chance of sending it to OKC.

By virtue of finishing with the NBA’s fifth-worst record this year, the Sixers have a 10.5% chance of winning the No. 1 overall pick, trailing only the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets (14% each) and New Orleans Pelicans (12.5%). They also have a 10.54% chance of winning the second pick, a 10.56% chance of winning the third pick and a 10.53% chance of winning the fourth pick. They only have a 2.22% chance of landing at No. 5 and a 19.61% chance of finishing at No. 6.

The results of the lottery figure to determine the Sixers’ direction this offseason. Let’s explore what each result could mean for them.

What If The Sixers Win The 2025 NBA Draft No. 1 Pick?

The Sixers entered last season among the championship favorites, but a relentless avalanche of injuries caused them to miss the playoffs entirely. They should bounce back in 2025-26 if star center Joel Embiid and forward Paul George stay healthier, although both players have lengthy injury histories that the Sixers have to account for. The Sixers entered last year planning for both players to rarely (if ever) play both games of a back-to-back set, but George wound up doing so four times.

Regardless of how the lottery plays out, the Sixers need to go into next season oriented more around their new-look backcourt and less around Embiid and George. Embiid has been their focal point on both ends of the floor for the past decade, but the Sixers can’t bank on him staying healthy, much less continuing to play at an MVP level.

That’s why winning the No. 1 overall pick would be such a godsend to them. If they could pair Flagg with Tyrese Maxey, Jared McCain and soon-to-be restricted free agent Quentin Grimes, they’d suddenly have one of the league’s most promising young cores to build around in the post-Embiid era. If Embiid and George struggle to stay healthy next season, the Sixers could look to pivot off one or both of them and reorient around Flagg.

Flagg averaged a well-rounded 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks per game during his lone season at Duke while shooting 48.1% overall and 38.5% from three-point range. He’s only the fourth freshman in NCAA history to win the Wooden Award for the nation’s most outstanding player, joining Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson. Durant and Davis have each won NBA championships, while Williamson remains one of the league’s most intriguing young talents when healthy.

Flagg would immediately slot in as one of the Sixers’ starting forwards alongside George. He could help reduce the offensive burden on George and Embiid and give the Sixers more of a scoring punch whenever one or both of them missed time. Landing him could also impact how the Sixers looked to round out their supporting cast this offseason, as they might feel less pressure to re-sign Guerschon Yabusele with Flagg in the fold.

The Sixers only have non-Bird rights on Yabusele, so they can’t offer him more than 120% of a minimum contract without spending their mid-level exception on him. Winning the rights to Flagg could widen the Sixers’ scope of free-agent options with the MLE, particularly if Kelly Oubre Jr. picks up his $8.4 million player option.

What If The Sixers Land The Nos. 2-6 Picks?

Missing out on Flagg would be disappointing, but the Sixers would still benefit from any of the top-six picks. The alternative is far worse.

Rutgers guard Dylan Harper has emerged as the consensus No. 2 prospect in this year’s draft behind Flagg. The Sixers’ backcourt is arguably their greatest strength right now, especially if they re-sign Grimes in free agency, but that shouldn’t cause them to pass up Harper. Unless you have a clear championship contender that’s missing one obvious piece, drafting for fit is a fool’s errand with a high-lottery pick.

“Definitely best player available,” team president Daryl Morey told reporters at his end-of-season press conference. “It has to be, that high in the draft, for sure. … We see the pick as a tool to make the team better. But obviously, there’s a good chance we’ll take someone. In that case, it will just be the best player. I’ve never shied from that.”

The decision could get trickier if the Sixers move further down the board. Rutgers guard Ace Bailey, Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe, Texas guard Tre Johnson and Oklahoma guard Jeremiah Fears are all considered top-six selections, while Duke center Khaman Maluach and Maryland center Derik Queen could work their way into the conversation.

Duke forward Kon Knueppel might be the cleanest fit with their current core, but the Sixers would have to decide whether he’s a reach with their pick. If so, they could consider trading down in the draft to still land him and acquire an additional asset. Trading out of the draft entirely for veteran, win-now help could be an option as well. Either way, landing this pick is their best chance to add another high-level talent to their current core.

What If The Sixers Lose Their 1st-Round Pick?

The disaster scenario is if the Sixers fall at least two spots on lottery night. Not only would they lose their pick, but they’d send it to a ready-made championship contender in OKC, which would only make their road to the title that much more difficult in the future.

A top-six pick would likely carry a cap hit between $8.2 million and $13.8 million, so the Sixers would have slightly more wiggle room under the aprons if they do convey their pick to the Thunder. However, building around three players on max contracts necessitates landing cheap, cost-controlled talent whenever possible. The Sixers should vastly prefer keeping their pick, even if it gives them less financial flexibility to build out the rest of their supporting cast.

The Sixers already have $149.1 million in guaranteed salary on their books between Embiid, George, Maxey and McCain. Adding a top-six pick to the mix would put them around $160 million, which would already be above the $154.6 million salary cap. The big concern would be their proximity to the $195.9 million first apron and $207.8 million second apron.

The Sixers would be hard-capped at the first apron if they used the $14.1 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, acquired a player via sign-and-trade or acquired more salary via trade than they sent out. They’d be hard-capped at the second apron if they used the $5.7 million taxpayer MLE or aggregated two smaller contracts to acquire a bigger salary in a trade.

Losing their pick might increase their chances of being able to retain all three of Grimes, Oubre and Yabusele while staying under the second apron. They’re all interconnected puzzle pieces this offseason. The more the Sixers spend on one, the less they might be able to allocate to another while staying under either of the aprons.

Again, the Sixers should prefer to keep their pick and deal with the free-agency ramifications later. But the additional financial flexibility they’d gain by conveying their pick could be one small silver lining to an otherwise devastating lottery result.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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