Consumers think interest rates will go up over next 12 months

The Bank of Canada noted in its Business Outlook Survey for the third quarter on Monday that consumers thought that interest rates will go up over the next 12 months, per Reuters.

Key takeaways

 “One-third of firms expect Canada to be in recession over the next year, the same as in Q2.”

“Recent indicators of future sales continue to moderate; balance of opinion in Q3 was flat compared to +8 in Q2.”

“27% of firms think it will take longer than three years to return to the BoC’s 2% inflation target, down from 32% in Q2.”

“53% of firms expect inflation to remain above 3% for the next two years, down from 64% in Q2.”

“More than 70% of firms across broad range of sectors say higher interest rates are negatively affecting them.”

“Around 80% of firms believe effects of past monetary policy tightening on their businesses are far from over.”

“Firms’ intentions to hire are below their historical average; firms report widespread easing in intensity of labor shortages compared to Q3 2022.”

“Overall Q3 Business Outlook Survey Indicator -3.51%, lowest since Q2 2020; Q2 2023 was -2.31% (rev from -2.15%).”

“Firm anticipate gradual easing in wage growth over next 12 months.”

“55% of Canadians expect a recession the next year, up from 50% in Q2.”

“Consumer expectations for 5-year ahead inflation have edged down to 2.75% from 2.89% in Q2.”

Market reaction

USD/CAD stays under modest bearish pressure in the American session and the pair was last seen losing 0.23% on the day at 1.3625.