Consolidation on the cards – OCBC

The US Dollar (USD) sell-off shows signs of stabilising as Jackson hole excitement comes to pass, OCBC FX strategists Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Clean break of 100.60 puts 99.60 in focus

“This week, 2Q GDP (Thu) and core PCE (Fri) will be the highlight. Firmer print may potentially slow USD’s bearish momentum, but another underwhelming print should re-expose USD to further downside. That said, month-end flows, geopolitical risks may potentially distort price action.”

“DXY was last at 100.87. Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI is near oversold conditions. Not ruling out the risk of short squeeze but bias to fade rallies. Death cross observed as 50DMA cuts 200DMA to the downside. Support here at 100.60 levels. Clean break puts 99.60 in focus.”

“Resistance at 101, 101.50 and 102.20 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low).”