Consolidates under 1.12 for a break above – Scotiabank

EUR/USD is consolidating just under 1.12, Friday’s high and the highest for EURUSD since July 2023, which was retested briefly in overnight trade, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Bulls may try to test 1.12

“Note that EZ/US 2Y spreads are also the narrowest since mid-2023, providing the essential support for the EUR. Germany’s IFO Business Confidence eased to 86.6 this month, down from July but slightly better than forecast. Details reflected weakness across most sectors of the economy outside of services. The index is weak and backsliding but remains well above recessionary levels.”

“Short-term trading patterns suggest the EUR may have peaked in overnight trade after forming a bearish “evening star” pattern on the 6-hour charts. Minor losses through quiet European trade tend to confirm that development. But losses are likely to remain limited in the short run at least.”

“Trend dynamics remain bullish across short, medium and long-term DMI oscillators and that should limit EUR losses to the low/mid 1.11s. Key short-term support is 1.1100/10.”