Colton McKivitz Now Key To NFC West Hopes

For the second time in as many seasons, Colton McKivitz will play a pivotal role in fortunes of the San Francisco 49ers’ season.

In Week 18 last year, McKivitz was pressed into action at left tackle in a do-or-die game against the Los Angeles Rams because of an injury to Trent Williams. McKivitz passed the test and helped the 49ers prevail in an overtime thriller to book their ticket to the postseason, in which they won a further two games before losing to Los Angeles in the NFC Championship Game.

Now, as the 49ers head into Week 4 of the 2022 season with a 1-2 record, the 49ers need McKivitz again to help get them back on track in a Monday Night Football game with the Rams after Williams suffered a high ankle sprain in the 11-10 loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 3.

For his part, head coach Kyle Shanahan appears to have confidence McKivitz has the right mindset to deliver a repeat performance.

Asked what qualities allowed McKivitz to hold his own last year, Shanahan told a Thursday press conference: “Just the game’s not too big for him. That was such a big game and we were really hoping we were going to have Trent, obviously. And Trent tried his hardest all the way up to game time and I just remember when we told Colton he was up and it was no big deal to him and he went out there and he performed.

“It was a huge challenge going against those two edge players they had and he just battles all game. Whether he gets beat or not, he’s going to be there every play and that always gives you a chance.”

The situation is not as critical as it was in the final game of last year’s regular season. A defeat is far from terminal for the 49ers, especially with road games against the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons in which they will be favored to win on the horizon.

But if the Niners, who have already suffered the major blow of losing starting quarterback Trey Lance, want to harbor realistic expectations of challenging a Rams team that is an underwhelming 2-1 through three games, they cannot afford to lose at home and fall two games behind the defending Super Bowl champions.

The Rams were blown out in their season opener with the Buffalo Bills and followed that defeat with two unconvincing wins, nearly surrendering a 28-3 lead against the Falcons before defeating a miserable Arizona Cardinals team 20-12 on the road.

Illustrating their below-par performances to this point is the Rams’ performance in Football Outsiders‘ efficiency metric, DVOA. The Rams sit 22nd in DVOA – 18th on offense and 16th on defense – while the 49ers are ninth, though that is not entirely reflective of their overall play. San Francisco’s defense is ranked third in the metric but its offense is a lowly 23rd.

The 49ers have an opportunity to gain an early edge over a Rams team playing well below their best and take the lead of the division, but snatching that chance will require McKivitz reproducing his play from Week 18 to protect a quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo who does not perform well when pressured.

He and his Niners teammates in the trenches failed to do that after Williams left the Broncos game in the third quarter. Jaylon Moore initially came in for Williams but was swiftly replaced by McKivitz, who rolled his ankle in practice and was listed as questionable for Week 3.

Per NextGen Stats (h/t Andrew Siciliano), with Williams on the field, Garoppolo was pressured on 12.2 percent of his dropbacks. That number increased to 21.4 percent after he went out.

Similar struggles against Aaron Donald and Co. may make it impossible for the 49ers to prevail and get to 2-2. The NFC West is still winnable for the 49ers even with the early significant injuries they have suffered, and McKivitz’s performances in Williams’ absence will go a long way to deciding whether they can wrest the division crown from the Rams.