Coinbase Stock Soars 10.22% Pre-Market Driven by S&P 500 Inclusion

Key Insights:

• Coinbase stock rose nearly +10% pre-market on May 13 after S&P 500 inclusion was announced.
• It will replace Discover Financial before markets open May 19.
• Oppenheimer raised COIN’s target to $293.
• Coinbase is acquiring Deribit for $2.9 billion.

On May 13, 2025, Coinbase stock price rallied 10.22% in pre-market trading, climbing to $228.40, after S&P Dow Jones Indices confirmed the company’s addition to the S&P 500 effective May 19, 2025.

The American crypto exchange will replace Discover Financial Services, which is set to be acquired by Capital One Financial in a $35.3 billion all-stock deal closing May 18.

Coinbase’s market capitalization stood at approximately $52.76 billion as of May 12. Analysts estimate that inclusion could draw up to $16 billion in passive and active inflows into COIN shares.

COIN Reacts to S&P Inclusion

According to Yahoo Finance data, premarket trading on May 13 saw COIN hit as high as $228.00, a gain of 9.76% from its previous close of $199.32.

The intraday high of $228.00 marked the highest level in over two months. Trading volume in the pre-market session was more than double the stock’s 30-day average.

As reported by Reuters, Bernstein analysts project that funds tracking or benchmarking the S&P 500 could channel up to $16 billion into Coinbase stock following its entry, split between passive index funds and active asset managers.

This estimate arises from indexing rules requiring fund managers to purchase shares in proportion to their market weight.

Passive vehicles alone may account for nearly $8 billion, with the remainder from actively managed portfolios adjusting allocations.

Oppenheimer analysts raised their price target for COIN to $293, noting that index inclusion typically prompts a sustained “leg up” in demand as institutional investors position for the change per Reuters.

They highlighted Coinbase’s expanding institutional client base and its planned $2.9 billion acquisition of crypto derivatives exchange Deribit, which may further bolster trading volumes and revenue diversity. Meanwhile, 15 brokerages rate COIN “buy” or higher, with a median target price of $255.78.

Coinbase Making Strategic Moves

In Q1 2025, Coinbase reported a net profit decline, pressured by higher operating costs and a drop in crypto asset valuations amid broader market volatility.

However, the company outlined plans to expand internationally and deepen its institutional offerings, including staking and custody services. The Deribit acquisition, announced May 8, signals a push into options markets, where open interest climbed 40% in April.

Bernstein analysts noted that “substantial dry powder positions Coinbase very well to acquire another leader in this space if opportunities arise,” citing possible targets like Polymarket.

Coinbase’s S&P 500 entry will mark the first time a pure-play cryptocurrency exchange joins the benchmark index, reflecting growing mainstream acceptance of digital assets.

The inclusion follows President Donald Trump’s promise of a lighter regulatory touch toward crypto, which Bitcoin rallied roughly 50% on since his November 2024 election win.

Discover Financial’s exit from the index comes after Capital One’s $35.3 billion takeover, expected to close May 18, creating the sixth-largest U.S. bank.

Funds that track the S&P 500 must rebalance before the May 19 open, compelling index-sensitive managers to buy roughly 1% of Coinbase’s free-float shares.

Some analysts caution that post-inclusion, COIN could face a modest “expiration of inclusion effect” as short-term demand wanes, but they maintain a bullish medium-term outlook on structural crypto adoption and revenue diversification.