Topline
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Sunday he does not believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent, while declaring the U.S. was committed to “helping Taiwan develop the capability to defend itself,” softer remarks than a pledge offered by President Joe Biden last month that U.S. forces would defend Taiwan if it were attacked.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speaks during a joint press conference.
Key Facts
Austin told CNN host Fareed Zakaria mainland China appears to be trying to set a “new normal,” with increased military activity and incursions into the Taiwan Strait—the 110-mile-wide strait that separates the island of Taiwan and mainland China—that “bears watching” to ensure the U.S. maintains “a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
The American military is “always prepared to protect our interests and live up to our commitments,” Austin responded when asked by Zakaria if the U.S. military would defend Taiwan against an invasion by China.
The question came two weeks after Biden told CBS’ 60 Minutes that U.S. forces would defend Taiwan “if in fact there was an unprecedented attack,” a commitment U.S. presidents typically haven’t explicitly made (White House officials later insisted the policy on Taiwan had not changed).
The Biden administration, Austin said, does not want to change the status of U.S.-Taiwan relations, which are guided by the Taiwan Relations Act, a 1979 law that stipulates that the U.S. maintains unofficial commercial and cultural relations with Taiwan that promote peace and stability in the region.
Crucial Quote
“I don’t see an imminent invasion,” Austin said on CNN. “What we do see is China moving to establish what we would call a new normal.”
Key Background
The Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 says the U.S. will help provide Taiwan with arms to defend itself and to “resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.” It does not state that U.S. troops themselves would fight for Taiwan in the event of an attack, and the United States has historically avoided specifying how it would respond to an invasion, a policy known as “strategic ambiguity.” The Chinese government claims Taiwan—which split from mainland China during the country’s civil war more than 70 years ago—as a province of the People’s Republic of China. In recent years, China’s military has grown more assertive near Taiwan, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raised fresh concerns that Chinese President Xi Jinping may move to invade the island. Xi has said reunification with Taiwan “must be fulfilled,” while Taiwan has said China’s military drills are designed to prepare for an invasion. Most recently, China launched military exercises following a visit to the island by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and five other Democratic lawmakers, which China called a “serious provocation.”
Tangent
Biden has suggested in the past the U.S. military would defend Taiwan during an invasion by China, though his administration has typically followed up his remarks by saying the U.S.’ policy toward Taiwan hasn’t changed.
Further Reading
Austin stops short of endorsing Biden’s vow to defend Taiwan (Politico)
U.S. defense secretary sees no imminent invasion of Taiwan by China (Reuters)
Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/madelinehalpert/2022/10/02/defense-secretary-austin-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan-not-imminent/